The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels on July 16 under the influence of effects associated with CH1306. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 489 and 690 km/sec, averaging 571 km/sec (-90 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 152.1 - increasing 15.9 over the previous solar rotation. The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 182.38 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 136.7 (41 days ago, this is 42.8% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.86 on October 13, 2024. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 18.1). Three hour interval K indices: 33332135 (planetary), 33242224 (Boulder), 55342246 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 357) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 233) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14135 [S08W52] was quiet and stable.
AR 14136 [N20W22] developed slowly as new flux emerged. M class
flaring is possible.
AR 14138 [N27W84] decayed further nearly losing the few remaining
trailing spots.
AR 14139 [N21W40] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.2 @
10:11 UT
AR 14140 [S17E07] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14142 [N01E22] gained spots and area and is still a trans
equatorial spot group. M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 07:50,
C1.2 @ 14:17, C1.5 @ 14:38, C1.6 @ 15:29, C1.7 @ 17:52, C1.8 @ 17:58, C1.8 @
18:32, C1.4 @ 20:15, C1.5 @ 23:31, C1.7 @ 23:55 UT
AR 14143 [N24W12] developed significantly and has M class flare
potential. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 02:47, C1.2 @ 03:29, C1.0 @ 05:17, C1.3 @
05:33, C1.2 @ 06:02, C1.4 @ 06:11, C1.3 @ 07:20, C1.1 @ 08:48, C1.1 @ 09:56,
C1.1 @ 13:10 UT
AR 14144 [S15E48] was quiet and stable.
AR 14145 [S25E07] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.6 @ 21:11 UT
New AR 14147 [N06E55] rotated into view on July 14 and was noticed by
SWPC two days later as the region continued to decay slowly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
S11237 [S04W24] was quiet and stable.
S11247 [N28W20] reemerged with a tiny spot.
S11259 [S08W01] developed slowly and quietly.
New AR S11261 [S02W54] emerged with a tiny spot.
New AR S11262 [N10E32] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.9/1F | 00:55 | N05E35 | 14142 | GOES18 | |
| C5.0 | 03:58 | N25E03 | 14143 | GOES18 | |
| C2.5 | 19:04 | N02E25 | 14142 | GOES18 | |
| C2.3 | 21:27 | 14142 | GOES18 |
July 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A huge recurrent trans equatorial positive polarity coronal hole (CH1306) was Earth facing on July 8-16. A recurrent negative polarity coronal hole (CH1307) in the northern hemisphere and with a likely trans equatorial extension, will likely rotate across the central meridian on July 19-21.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active levels on July 17 due to effects from CH1306. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on July 18-19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the
next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous
day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14135 | 2025.07.06 2025.07.07 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S09W52 | 0040 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11226 area: 0090 location: S08W52 |
| 14136 | 2025.07.08 2025.07.09 |
7 | 30 | 18 | N19W28 | 0250 | CKO | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11232 location: N20W22 area: 0530 SWPC location is way off |
| S11236 | 2025.07.09 | N11W44 |
 |
||||||||
| S11237 | 2025.07.09 | 1 | S04W24 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 14138 | 2025.07.10 2025.07.11 |
6 | 3 | 1 | N29W79 | 0050 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11240 area: 0170 location: N27W84 |
| 14140 | 2025.07.10 2025.07.11 |
5 | 23 | 8 | S15E04 | 0030 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11242 location: S17E07 |
| 14139 | 2025.07.11 2025.07.11 |
11 | 19 | 10 | N22W42 | 0250 | DKO | DKO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11243 area: 0520 location: N21W40 |
| S11247 | 2025.07.12 | 1 | 1 | N28W21 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S11249 | 2025.07.13 | N30W57 | |||||||||
| S11251 | 2025.07.13 | S09W15 | |||||||||
| 14142 | 2025.07.13 2025.07.14 |
18 | 45 | 27 | N01E21 | 0100 | DAI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S11252 area: 0480 location: N01E22 |
| 14143 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.14 |
15 | 40 | 26 | N23W12 | 0090 | DAI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma was AR S11254 area: 0470 location: N24W12 |
| 14144 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S15E48 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11255 area: 0060 |
| 14147 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.16 |
2 | 2 | 2 | N06E52 | 0020 | CAO | HRX |
 |
 |
was AR S11256 location: N06E55 |
| S11257 | 2025.07.14 | N08W22 | |||||||||
| 14145 | 2025.07.14 2025.07.15 |
5 | 19 | 13 | S26E07 | 0030 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
was AR S11258 location: S25E07 area: 0060 |
| S11259 | 2025.07.15 | 9 | 5 | S08W01 | 0030 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S11260 | 2025.07.15 | S13E59 |
 |
||||||||
| 14146 | 2025.07.16 | 1 | N18W34 | 0010 | HRX | apparently a misinterpretation by SWPC. Split off the leader spot of AR 14136. Currently there is no reason to do that and the result is inflating the spot number by 10. | |||||
| S11261 | 2025.07.16 | 1 | S02W54 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S11262 | 2025.07.16 | 1 | N10E32 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 72 | 207 | 113 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 182 | 357 | 233 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 133 | 269 | 175 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 200 | 196 | 186 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.01 | 164.6 | 159.3 | 126.0 | 131.2 (+1.7) | 5.46 |
| 2024.02 | 172.5 | 168.3 | 123.0 | 136.9 (+5.7) | 5.31 |
| 2024.03 | 154.4 | 152.9 | 103.7 | 141.4 (+4.5) | 11.03 |
| 2024.04 | 161.3 | 162.6 | 137.0 | 144.5 (+3.1) | 9.69 |
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.06 | 184.3 | 190.2 | 164.1 | 152.8 (+3.7) | 10.24 |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (cycle peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.1 (-3.8) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.3 (-5.8) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | (146.1 projected, -5.2) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | (138.3 projected, -7.8) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | (131.9 projected, -6.4) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 140.6 | (127.3 projected, -4.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 79.2 | (122.0 projected, -5.3) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 116.3 | (117.1 projected, -4.9) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 127.4 (1) | 56.8 (2A) / 110.1 (2B) / 133.6 (2C) | (112.9 projected, -4.2) | (14.0) | |
| 2025.08 | (108.1 projected, -4.8) | ||||
| 2025.09 | (103.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2025.10 | (99.9 projected, -3.9) | ||||
| 2025.11 | (97.6 projected, -2.3) | ||||
| 2025.12 | (96.0 projected, -1.6) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity has been on a decreasing trend since September
2024 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Compared to the peak of SC25 solar flux has been at a low level in both May
and June 2025. Taking a closer look at the 81 day (3 solar rotations)
average solar flux proxy, its peak was in early September 2024 and had on
May 12 decreased to less than half of the solar cycle flux range.
Subtracting the 81 day average of approximately 69 at solar cycle minimum
from all measurements, the SC25 range is 0 - 158.3.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers peaked on October 11-12, 2024,
very likely making this the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9). The 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
