The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under the influence of effects associated with CH1404. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 486 and 608 km/sec, averaging 512 km/sec (-88 km/sec compared to the previous day). The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes was at quiet to minor storm levels. The above 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels all day.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.7 - increasing 29.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 131.54 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 114.8 (41 days ago, this is 29.0% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 21132332 (planetary), 21133322 (Boulder), 41113445 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 162) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 102) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14551 [S13W07]
developed slowly and gained a small magnetic delta configuration in the
northern part of the largest penumbra. An M flare is possible. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 02:17, C1.0 @ 07:27, C1.0 @ 09:43, C1.0 @ 11:44, C1.3 @ 14:01, C1.0 @
14:19, C1.0 @ 15:00, C1.4 @ 15:17, C1.1 @ 17:27, C1.4 @ 17:36, C1.1 @ 20:56,
C1.0 @ 22:55, C1.5 @ 23:49, C1.9 @ 23:58 UT
AR 14553 [N08E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14555 [S07W54] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14556 [N04E35] decayed slowly and could soon become spotless.
AR 14557 [N08E30] developed after noon as new
flux emerged. Polarity intermixing was observed and the region could produce
a minor M class flare if the current development persists. C1 flares: C1.4 @
16:25, C1.2 @ 18:41, C1.0 @ 21:36 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
New AR S12419 [S07E24] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.8 | 02:07 | S14E07 | 14551 | GOES18 | |
| C4.9 | 15:55 | 14551 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.8 | 17:55 | S12W01 | 14551 | GOES18 |
October 13, 15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed.
October 14: An extensive filament eruption, mainly in the northeast
quadrant, was observed before noon. The associated CME could have Earth
directed components.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial negative polarity coronal hole (CH1404) was Earth facing on October 10-12. A recurrent positive polarity southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1405) will likely rotate across the central meridian on October 16-17. A recurrent negative polarity northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1406) will likely become Earth facing on October 19-20.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on October 16 due to effects associated with CH1404. Mostly quiet levels are expected on October 17-18, however, compnonents of the October 14 CME could reach Earth and cause unsettled to minor storm levels. Quiet to minor storm levels are possible on October 19-20 due to effects associated with CH1405.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14548 | 2026.10.02 2026.10.03 |
1 | S13W93 | 0020 | HSX |
 |
was AR S12392 rotated out of view |
||||
| 14551 | 2026.10.08 2026.10.09 |
32 | 55 | 35 | S15W06 | 0620 | EKI | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta was AR S12407 area: 0800 location: S13W07 |
| S12410 | 2026.10.09 | S08W30 | |||||||||
| S12412 | 2026.10.10 | N19W45 | |||||||||
| 14553 | 2026.10.10 2026.10.11 |
1 | 10 | N06E06 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S12413 location: N08E08 |
|
| 14555 | 2026.10.11 | 3 | 4 | 3 | S07W56 | 0010 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
was AR S12414 area: 0020 location: S07W54 |
| 14554 | 2026.10.11 2026.10.12 |
N07E20 |
 |
was AR S12415 location: N08E19 |
|||||||
| 14556 | 2026.10.12 2026.10.13 |
3 | N03E32 | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S12416, see AR 14557 as well location: N04E33 |
||||
| S12417 | 2026.10.12 | S23W35 | |||||||||
| 14557 | 2026.10.13 | 17 | 29 | 23 | N07E29 | 0050 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma split off from AR S12416 area: 0130 |
| 14558 | 2026.10.13 2026.10.14 |
S08W48 | was AR S12418 | ||||||||
| S12419 | 2026.10.15 | 1 | 1 | S07E24 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
was AR S12418 | |||
| Total spot count: | 54 | 102 | 62 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 104 | 162 | 102 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 75 | 118 | 78 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 104 | 81 | 77 | (Effective 2026.09.19: SWPC adjustment changed from 1.1 to 1.0, STAR 2K adjustment changed from 0.55 to 0.5, STAR 1K adjustment changed from 0.8 to 0.75) | |||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.9 | 122.5 (-2.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.7 | 118.4 (-4.1) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.7 | 113.1 (-5.3) | 14.02 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | 108.5 (-4.6) | 15.64 |
| 2025.11 | 140.3 | 137.3 | 91.7 | 106.9 (-1.6) | 21.01 |
| 2025.12 | 160.8 | 155.8 | 124.0 | 107.0 (-0.1) | 13.35 |
| 2026.01 | 148.7 | 144.0 | 115.0 | 104.2 (-2.8) | 22.47 |
| 2026.02 | 136.4 | 133.1 | 77.4 | 99.8 (-4.4) | 12.88 |
| 2026.03 | 131.0 | 129.7 | 86.6 | 94.5 (-5.3) | 15.44 |
| 2026.04 | 120.0 | 120.9 | 79.3 | (89.6 projected, -4.9) | 12.10 |
| 2026.05 | 125.4 | 128.2 | 101.4 | (87.2 projected, -2.4) | 9.80 |
| 2026.06 | 137.9 | 142.2 | 94.3 | (84.1 projected, -3.1) | 9.57 |
| 2026.07 | 134.7 | 139.0 | 78.1 | (79.2 projected, -4.9) | 10.16 |
| 2026.08 | 116.1 | 119.0 | 76.0 | (77.0 projected, -2.2) | 8.67 |
| 2026.09 | 105.0 | 106.1 | 60.3 | (76.1 projected, -0.9) | 7.54 |
| 2026.10 | 112.0 (1) | 37.9 (2A) / 78.3 (2B) / 69.5 (2C) | (74.0 projected, -2.1) | (13.6) | |
| 2026.11 | (71.2 projected, -2.8) | ||||
| 2026.12 | (68.0 projected, -3.2) | ||||
| 2027.01 | (65.6 projected, -2.4) | ||||
| 2027.02 | (63.8 projected, -1.8) | ||||
| 2027.03 | (62.5 projected, -1.3) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Solar activity appears to have exited the solar max phase as of February
2026 with a strong decrease in the number of sunspots observed. The northern
polar field has weakened considerably over the last months, and although
there is a chance the the field could recover over the next 1-2 years, there
is an increasing chance that solar cycle 26 will be very weak. The southern
polar field is not impressive either, however, a southern polar coronal hole
has formed early in 2026 and appears to be growing.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
