The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 455 and 544 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.5 - decreasing 23.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.26). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32211101 (planetary), 33212311 (Boulder), 53212201 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 292) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 156) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13074 [S17W50] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N23W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15W22] decayed slowly with the
main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae.
Region 13078 [S24E08] developed significantly as new flux emerged.
Polarities are intermixed and there are many spots in a relatively small
area. Minor class flaring will become likely if the region continues to
develop. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 03:40, C1.0 @ 06:29, C1.1 @ 18:10, C1.0 @ 19:18
UT
Region 13079 [S11W37] was less active than on the previous day. There
is still polarity intermixing in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.2
@ 08:31, C1.3 @ 21:54 UT
Region 13080 [N19W65] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13081 [N11E31] produced a few small C flares and has, despite
the presence of many spots, a fairly simple magnetic layout. C1 flares: C1.0
@ 04:47, C1.2 @ 14:57, C1.0 @ 15:55 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10E22] was quiet and stable.
S7767 [N17W24] decayed further. The region was the main source of a
long duration C2 event peaking at 12:35 UT. A partial halo CME was
associated with this event.
S7771 [S27E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7776 [N20W22] emerged before noon
with several spots to the north of ARs 13076 and S7767. The development of
this region may have triggered the C2 flare in AR 7767.
New region S7778 [S09E71] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7779 [N11E13] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S7780 [N14W57] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.4 | 12:35 | S7767 | GOES16 | LDE, partial halo CME | |
| C5.3 | 14:00 | S11W33 | 13079 | GOES16 |
August 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
August 14: A partial halo CME was observed after a long duration C2
event, mainly in AR S7767 but also extending northwards to AR S7776, peaking
just after noon. The CME could reach Earth on August 17.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A boomerang shaped recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) will rotate across the central meridian on August 14-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet conditions are likely on August 15-16. Quiet to minor storm conditions is expected for August 17-20 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 14 CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13071 | 2022.08.01 2022.08.03 |
1 | S18W90 | 0120 | HSX |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 13074 | 2022.08.04 2022.08.05 |
1 | 6 | 3 | S16W52 | 0110 | HSX | CSO |
 |
|
area: 0140 location: S17W50 |
| 13075 | 2022.08.05 2022.08.07 |
3 | N18W44 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N23W30 | |||
| 13076 | 2022.08.06 2022.08.07 |
9 | 9 | 6 | N16W23 | 0090 | CAI | CAO |
 |
 |
SWPC includes AR S7767 in this group location: N15W22 area: 0070 |
| S7755 | 2022.08.07 | N30W46 | |||||||||
| 13077 | 2022.08.07 2022.08.09 |
S18W74 |
 |
location: S17W71 | |||||||
| 13078 | 2022.08.09 2022.08.10 |
5 | 28 | 13 | S25E06 | 0060 | CAO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0100 location: S24E08 |
| S7763 | 2022.08.09 | N30W54 | |||||||||
| S7766 | 2022.08.10 | 3 | S10E22 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S7767 | 2022.08.11 | 9 | 3 | N17W24 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
reversed polarities | ||
| 13081 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.13 |
13 | 45 | 19 | N10E31 | 0160 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N11E31 area: 0260 |
| 13080 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.12 |
2 | 2 | N20W66 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N19W65 |
||
| 13079 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.12 |
15 | 24 | 11 | S11W39 | 0130 | CAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: S11W37 |
| S7771 | 2022.08.11 | 1 | S27E01 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7773 | 2022.08.12 | N23W12 | |||||||||
| S7774 | 2022.08.13 | S12W24 | |||||||||
| S7775 | 2022.08.13 | N36E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S7776 | 2022.08.14 | 15 | 6 | N20W22 | 0050 | DRI | |||||
| S7777 | 2022.08.14 | N26W00 |
 |
||||||||
| S7778 | 2022.08.14 | 1 | S09E71 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7779 | 2022.08.14 | 5 | 3 | N11E13 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7780 | 2022.08.14 | 1 | N14W57 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 44 | 152 | 66 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 104 | 292 | 156 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 74 | 180 | 94 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 114 | 161 | 125 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 111.5 (1) | 29.9 (2A) / 66.2 (2B) / 92.5 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (10.8) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
