The geomagnetic field was at very quiet levels on November 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 542 and 814 km/sec, averaging 643 km/sec (-147 km/sec compared to the previous day). The above 10 MeV proton flux peaked started the UT day at 4.6 pfu, then increased to 16.5 pfu at 09:50 due to the X4 flare in AR 14274. By the end of the UT day the above 10 MeV proton flux had decreased to 3.8 pfu.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 145.3 - decreasing 11.8 over the previous solar rotation.
The 365 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 159.56 (183 days ago). The 81 day average solar flux at 1 AU was 153.5 (41 days ago, this is 53.4% of the total SC25 solar flux range from the max 81 day average peak on September 4, 2024 at 227.3 and an average 81 day flux of 69 at solar minimum). SC25 365d peak: 195.9 on October 13, 2024.
The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the average of three hour interval ap indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 10111100 (planetary), 2121*300 (Boulder), 21012210 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 19).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 252) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 176) SDO/HMI images.
AR 14274 [N24W76] decayed in the intermediate
and trailing spot section as the spot group rotated to the northwest limb.
Two magnetic delta configurations are still visible and another major proton
flare may be possible over the next couple of days. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 02:32,
C1.6 @ 06:50, C1.6 @ 13:41, C1.8 @ 14:39, C1.7 @ 14:54, C1.6 @ 15:30, C1.5 @
15:40, C1.7 @ 16:10, C1.9 @ 19:04, C1.5 @ 19:46, C1.8 @ 19:53, C1.6 @ 22:54,
C1.7 @ 23:12, C1.6 @ 23:42 UT
AR 14275 [N07W78] was quiet and stable.
AR 14276 [S15W45] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 03:51 UT
AR 14277 [S05W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR 14279 [S13W07] was mostly quiet and stable.
AR 14280 [S08E08] decayed slowly and quietly.
New
AR 14282 [S19W34] was numbered as SWPC decided to split off the
former trailing spot section of AR 14276.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC/USAF:
AR S11596 [S07W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
AR S11602 [N09E24] was quiet and stable.
AR S11605 [S14E34] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 04:53 UT
New AR S11608 [S24W33] emerged to the south of
AR 14282 with tiny spots.
New AR S11609 [N23E47] emerged with several spots.
New AR S11610 [S20E18] emerged with a few spots.
AR 14281 produced C1 flares while at or behind the southwest limb: C1.3 @ 00:14, C1.6 @ 00:46, C1.7 @ 01:56, C1.6 @ 05:36 UT
C2+ flares
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| M1.8 | 07:38 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| X4.0/3B | 08:30 | N22W61 | 14274 | GOES18 | CME, strong type II and moderate type IV radio sweeps |
| C9.8 | 10:16 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.6 | 11:16 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.1 | 11:28 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.6 | 12:07 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 15:03 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 16:31 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.2 | 16:41 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.7 | 17:02 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 17:16 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 17:21 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.5 | 17:33 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 17:44 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 17:55 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.8 | 18:01 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C3.0 | 18:07 | 14281 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.9 | 18:26 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.4 | 18:45 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.3 | 19:08 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C2.0 | 19:15 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| M1.3 | 20:12 | 14274 | GOES18 | ||
| C4.7 | 20:59 | behind southwest limb | 14281 | GOES18 | |
| M1.3 | 21:31 | 14274 | GOES18 |
November 14: A full halo CME was observed after the X4.0 flare
in AR 14274 peaking at 08:30 UT. The CME could reach Earth on November 16
and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
November 13: A filament eruption in the southeast quadrant at 17h on
November 13 was associated with a CME observed off the southeast limb. This
CME may have an Earth directed component. If it does the CME could arrive on
November 16.
November 12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.
[Coronal
hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere negative polarity coronal hole (CH1330) will be Earth facing on November 13-16.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on November 15. The November 14 CME associated with the X4 flare in AR 14274 could arrive on November 16 and cause unsettled to major storm levels. Effects from CH1330 could cause quiet to minor storm levels on November 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could
reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 14274 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
13 | 22 | 11 | N24W78 | 0700 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
was AR S11575 beta-gamma-delta area: 1160 location: N24W76 |
| 14275 | 2025.11.02 2025.11.03 |
1 | 1 | 1 | N08W79 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
was AR S11577 area: 0170 location: N07W78 |
| 14276 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.06 |
6 | 9 | 3 | S17W45 | 0040 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11581 area: 0030 location: S15W45 |
| 14278 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
N11W50 |
 |
was AR S11582 location: N12W46 |
|||||||
| 14277 | 2025.11.05 2025.11.07 |
5 | 13 | 7 | S07W45 | 0060 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
was AR S11583 area: 0140 location: S05W43 |
| 14279 | 2025.11.07 2025.11.09 |
2 | 12 | 4 | S13W10 | 0030 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
was AR S11587 area: 0040 location: S13W07 |
| 14281 | 2025.11.08 2025.11.11 |
2 | S14W92 | 0020 | HSX |
 |
was AR S11589 rotated out of view |
||||
| S11591 | 2025.11.08 | N14W32 | |||||||||
| S11592 | 2025.11.08 | S32W54 | |||||||||
| 14280 | 2025.11.09 2025.11.10 |
3 | 10 | 6 | S08E07 | 0010 | CAO | CRO |
 |
 |
was AR S11593 area: 0025 location: S08E08 |
| S11596 | 2025.11.10 | 2 | 1 | S07W14 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S11598 | 2025.11.10 | S32W34 | |||||||||
| S11599 | 2025.11.11 | N07W47 | |||||||||
| S11600 | 2025.11.11 | N27W42 | |||||||||
| 14282 | 2025.11.11 2025.11.14 |
2 | 21 | 10 | S17W35 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
was AR S11601 area: 0030 location: S19W34 |
| S11602 | 2025.11.11 | 7 | 3 | N10E38 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S11603 | 2025.11.12 | S06E24 | |||||||||
| S11604 | 2025.11.12 | N09W15 | |||||||||
| S11605 | 2025.11.12 | 8 | S14E34 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S11606 | 2025.11.13 | N07E37 |
 |
||||||||
| S11607 | 2025.11.13 | N04E02 |
 |
||||||||
| S11608 | 2025.11.14 | 8 | 4 | S24W33 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S11609 | 2025.11.14 | 5 | 4 | N23E47 | 0020 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S11610 | 2025.11.14 | 4 | 2 | S20E18 | 0025 | DRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 122 | 56 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 114 | 252 | 176 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 74 | 159 | 93 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 125 | 139 | 141 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average
ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2024.05 | 187.7 | 191.9 | 172.1 | 149.1 (+4.6) | 23.56 (SC25 peak) |
| 2024.07 | 196.6 | 203.0 | 196.8 | 155.0 (+2.3) | 7.13 |
| 2024.08 | 246.1 (SC25 peak) |
252.2 | 216.0 (SC25 peak) | 156.8 (+1.8) | 15.96 |
| 2024.09 | 195.7 | 197.8 | 141.1 | 159.4 (+1.6) | 15.36 |
| 2024.10 | 221.0 | 219.6 | 165.8 | 160.9 (+1.5) (SC25 solar max) | 18.99 |
| 2024.11 | 199.6 | 195.3 | 154.1 | 157.2 (-3.7) | 9.33 |
| 2024.12 | 197.3 | 191.2 | 154.6 | 151.2 (-6.0) | 8.42 |
| 2025.01 | 190.3 | 184.2 | 137.0 | 146.2 (-5.0) | 13.17 |
| 2025.02 | 184.2 | 179.7 | 155.7 | 139.8 (-6.4) | 14.42 |
| 2025.03 | 163.7 | 162.1 | 134.2 | 135.9 (-3.9) | 15.96 |
| 2025.04 | 162.5 | 163.6 | 141.4 | 133.3 (-2.6) | 17.62 |
| 2025.05 | 135.3 | 138.3 | 78.5 | (128.5 projected, -4.8) | 17.26 |
| 2025.06 | 131.3 | 135.4 | 114.6 | (123.8 projected, -4.7) | 21.43 |
| 2025.07 | 137.8 | 142.3 | 125.6 | (120.6 projected, -3.2) | 11.80 |
| 2025.08 | 154.9 | 158.7 | 133.5 | (117.0 projected, -3.6) | 9.97 |
| 2025.09 | 154.4 | 156.0 | 129.8 | (113.1 projected, -3.9) | 14.1 |
| 2025.10 | 139.5 | 138.6 | 114.6 | (109.1 projected, -4.0) | 15.9 |
| 2025.11 | 153.6 (1) | 47.3 (2A) / 101.3 (2B) / 124.9 (2C) | (106.8 projected, -2.3) | (29.6) | |
| 2025.12 | (105.3 projected, -1.5) | ||||
| 2026.01 | (101.2 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.02 | (97.1 projected, -4.1) | ||||
| 2026.03 | (92.8 projected, -4.3) | ||||
| 2026.04 | (89.0 projected, -3.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value
at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 27 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap
indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap
indices.
4) Source: WDC-SILSO, Royal Observatory
Of Belgium, Brussels
Sunspot activity was on a decreasing trend from September
2024 until mid August 2025 (using the average solar flux over 3 solar rotations as a proxy).
Then a strong surge in activity saw solar flux peak in late August 2025 just
below the largest peaks seen in 2024. A slow decrease in activity from the
August level has been observed in September and October 2025.
All 365 day smoothed sunspot numbers reached a maximum on October 11-12, 2024.
This became the peak of SC25 (365 day smoothed peaks: STAR 1K: 236.1, STAR 2K: 364.3, NOAA SN: 156.0, ISN: 163.9),
while the 365d
smoothed solar flux peaked on October 13, 2024, just 1.7% below the SC23
peak, and 62.6% above the SC24 peak.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whichever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
