Last update January 16, 2003 at 03:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data
- last 4 weeks (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 1, 2003)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2002 (last update October 13, 2002)]
[Archived reports (last update January 13, 2003)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 15. Solar wind speed ranged between 367 and 425 km/sec, under the influence of a weak coronal stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 149.9. The planetary A
index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 32223322 (planetary), 21222222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was low. Only 1 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10247 decayed further. All of the trailing spots are likely to disappear today.
Region 10250 was quiet and unchanged.
Region 10251 decayed further losing penumbral area in the leading spots. The region was quiet.
Region 10254 was quiet and stable.
Region 10255 was split off from region 10251 on January 12 by SEC/NOAA. This split was doubtful even then and it is
currently obvious that it was a premature decision.
Region 10256 was split off from region 10254 on January 12 by SEC/NOAA. Regions 10254 and 10256 make up one bipolar region with the negative polarity area in the west and the positive area to the east. It remains to be seen if SEC will merge the "two" regions again.
Region 10257 developed early in the day, then decayed again.
Region 10258 was quiet and stable.
Region 10259 did not change much and was mostly quiet. Flare: C1.2 at 09:24 UTC.
New region 10260 rotated into view at the northeast limb.
January 13-15: No obviously geoeffective CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A large trans equatorial coronal hole will rotate into a geoeffective position on January 19-22.
Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on January 15. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 16-19 with a few unsettled intervals likely early in the period. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair becoming fair to good.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included. Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.
|Solar region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
classification was CSO
at midnight, area 0040
classification was ESO
at midnight, area 0200,
region 10255 included
classification was ESO
at midnight, area 0140.
STAR spot count
includes region 10256.
Only negative polarity
spots in leading section
split off from region
split off from region
10254. A single
positive polarity spot.
|Total spot count:||63||32|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2002.07||173.5||99.6||(102.1 predicted, -4.1)|
|2002.08||183.6||116.4||(98.5 predicted, -3.6)|
|2002.09||175.8||109.6||(95.5 predicted, -3.0)|
|2002.10||167.0||97.5||(92.0 predicted, -3.5)|
|2002.11||168.7||95.0||(86.7 predicted, -5.3)|
|2002.12||157.2||81.6||(82.4 predicted, -4.3)|
|2003.01||158.4 (1)||78.0 (2)||(79.4 predicted, -3.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and partly on data from sources noted in solar links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.