Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on June 3, 2004 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 2, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update April 28, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update May 30, 2004)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 461 and 546 km/sec under the influence of a weak high speed stream from coronal hole CH99. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northwards until after 18h UTC, after which time more frequent and stronger southward excursions have been observed.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 90.0. The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 33312222 (planetary), 33223322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10621 decayed quickly and lost all penumbra in the leading and intermediate spot sections.
Region 10624 was quiet and stable.
New region 10625 emerged early in the day in the southwest quadrant.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 1-3: No fully or partly Earth directed CMEs observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

 A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH99) was in a geoeffective position on May 30-31.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:05 UTC on June 3. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.


The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 4 due to a high speed stream from coronal hole CH99. Quiet to unsettled is likely on June 5-8.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.


Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair to good. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Early on (after 22:20 UTC) the frequency was fairly chaotic with 4-5 different stations from Brazil fading in and out, all with weak signals. Near local sunrise Rádio Clube de Paranaense on 1430 kHz and "1440 AM" from Rio de Janeiro had the best signals, however, there were lots of weak stations in the upper part of the MW band. The only station from North America was WWZN Boston on 1510 kHz, its signal improved to weak with fair peaks.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10621 2004.05.29 30 16 S14W01 0090 DAI classification was CAI
at midnight, area 0040
10622 2004.05.30 3   S09E20 0010 AXX spotless
10623 2004.06.01     N08W48     plage
10624 2004.06.01 2 3 S07E38 0020 CAO classification was HAX
at midnight
10625 2004.06.03 2 4 S12W56 0020 HSX classification was CAO
at midnight
S409 emerged on
    S01W18     plage
Total spot count: 37 23
SSN: 77 53

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2003.05 115.7 55.2 67.6 (-2.5)
2003.06 129.3 77.4 65.0 (-2.6)
2003.07 127.7 83.3 61.8 (-3.2)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 60.0 (-1.8)
2003.09 112.2 48.7 59.5 (-0.5)
2003.10 151.7 65.5 58.1 (-1.4)
2003.11 140.8 67.3 56.7 (-1.4)
2003.12 114.9 46.5 (54.4 predicted, -2.3)
2004.01 114.1 37.2 (50.5 predicted, -3.9)
2004.02 107.0 46.0 (46.2 predicted, -4.3)
2004.03 112.0 48.9 (43.5 predicted, -2.7)
2004.04 101.2 39.3 (41.4 predicted, -2.1)
2004.05 99.8 41.5 (38.2 predicted, -3.2)
2004.06 90.1 (1) 7.2 (2) (35.3 predicted, -2.9)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

[DX-Listeners' Club]