Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on November 13, 2004 at 04:15 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 4, 2004)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update November 8, 2004)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2004)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on November 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 510 and 662 km/sec. Solar wind speed decreased gradually during the latter half of the day.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.4. The planetary A index was 30 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 29.5).
Three hour interval K indices: 55454334 (planetary), 45454323 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events was recorded during the day.

Region 10699 was quiet and stable.
Region 10700 developed slowly after a new region emerged immediately to the east.
Region 10701 was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S474] This region emerged quickly just east northeast of region 10700 on November 12. Further growth could cause the two regions to merge. C flares are possible. Location at midnight: N06W12.
[S475] A new region emerged fairly quickly east northeast of region 10701 on November 12. Location at midnight: S13E32.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

Recurrent coronal hole CH127 in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into a geoeffective position on November 16-17.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 13. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 13-15.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
Coronal hole indicator CME indicator M and X class flare indicator

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is useless. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: none, only a very weak signal was detected. The only identified trans Atlantic station was Rádio Sociedade on 740 kHz.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10696 2004.11.01 1   N08W87 0070 HAX rotated out of view
10699 2004.11.09 3 1 S14E27 0030 CSO classification was HSX
at midnight, area 0020
location: S15E24
10700 2004.11.11 6 5 N05W14 0030 DSO classification was CSO
at midnight,
location: N04W16
10701 2004.11.11 2 3 S17E60 0100 CSO classification was CAO
at midnight, area 0070
location: S16E57
S472 emerged on
2004.11.09
    S12W67     plage
S474 emerged on
2004.11.12
  12 N06W12 0040 CAI  
S475 emerged on
2004.11.12
  5 S13E32 0040 DAO  
Total spot count: 12 26
SSN: 52 76

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2003.08 122.1 72.7 60.0 (-1.7)
2003.09 112.2 48.7 59.5 (-0.5)
2003.10 151.7 65.5 58.2 (-1.3)
2003.11 140.8 67.3 56.7 (-1.5)
2003.12 114.9 46.5 54.8 (-1.9)
2004.01 114.1 37.3 52.0 (-2.8)
2004.02 107.0 45.8 49.3 (-2.7)
2004.03 112.0 49.1 47.1 (-2.2)
2004.04 101.2 39.3 45.5 (-1.6)
2004.05 99.8 41.5 (42.8 predicted, -2.7)
2004.06 97.4 43.2 (40.0 predicted, -2.8)
2004.07 119.1 51.0 (38.2 predicted, -1.8)
2004.08 109.6 40.9 (36.6 predicted, -1.6)
2004.09 103.1 27.7 (34.7 predicted, -1.9)
2004.10 105.9 48.4 (32.5 predicted, -2.2)
2004.11 124.0 (1) 38.3 (2) (31.0 predicted, -1.5)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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