Last major update issued on December 2, 2005 at 05:45 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update November 2, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on December 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 607 and 768 (all day average 690) km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH200.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC
on 2.8 GHz was 98. The planetary
index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 42122224 (planetary), 42232225 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 4 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 6 C class events was recorded during the day. A C2.1 event at 02:38 UTC had a source just behind the northeast limb and was associated with a fast CME over the east limbs.
decayed and rotated to the southwest limb.
Region 10826 developed quickly and has a strong magnetic delta structure in the large central penumbra. Further major flares are possible, even a low level X class flare. Flares: C1.4 at 00:18, C5.7 at 05:04, C6.0 at 08:37, C1.5 at 12:21 and C2.2 at 15:35 UTC. A major M6.5 flare was observed at 02:52 UTC on December 2.
Region 10827 was quiet and stable.
New region 10828 emerged in the southeast quadrant.
December 2: The major M6 event in region 10826 early in the day strongly affected the corona to the west and northwest of
the region. It is likely that this event was associated with a significant Earth directed CME.
November 30 and December 1: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 29: A partial halo CME was observed over the southern hemisphere and the northwest limb after the C4 LDE in region 10824. The core ejected material was first observed over the southwest limb in LASCO C2 images at 17:30 and in C3 at 18:18 UTC while a more diffuse front appeared soon afterwards over the south pole, the southeast quadrant and some of the northwest quadrant.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
Recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole CH200 was in an Earth facing position on November 28-30.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on December 1. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on December 2 due to a high speed stream from CH200. The major event in region 10826 on December 2 may have caused a CME which could reach Earth late on December 3 or on December 4 and cause active to major geomagnetic storming.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation favored Venezuela, but not that many stations were audible. A few of the most common east coast stations from North America were audible at low signal levels.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10824||2005.11.20||3||1||S14W75||0070||CRO||classification was HRX at midnight, area 0020|
area was 0600 at midnight
|10827||2005.11.30||6||4||N08E42||0050||DRO||classification was DSO at midnight, area 0040
|10828||2005.12.01||8||9||S04E42||0060||DSO||classification was DAO at midnight, area 0090|
|Total spot count:||39||44|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.06||93.7||39.6||(28.1 predicted, -0.8)|
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(27.6 predicted, -0.5)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(25.7 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(23.6 predicted, -2.1)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(21.6 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(19.2 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||98 (1)||2.5 (2)||(16.4 predicted, -2.8)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.