Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on February 19, 2005 at 05:55 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update February 16, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on February 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 424 and 625 km/sec under the influence of effects from CH145. After 15h UTC the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly northwards.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 104.2. The planetary A index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 54434432 (planetary), 53434423 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.

At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 5 C class events was recorded during the day.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S516] This region emerged in the southeast quadrant on February 18. Location at midnight: S07E04.
[S517] A new region emerged in the northwest quadrant on February 18. Location at midnight: N14W22.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 17: A full halo CME was observed early in the day and was likely associated with the C4.9 flare in region 10734 at 23:38 on February 16.
February 16 and 18: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small coronal hole (CH147) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate to a geoeffective position on February 19-20. A recurrent coronal hole (CH148) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate to a geoeffective position on February 23-24.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on February 19. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on February 19-20, possibly with major storm intervals, due to the arrival of the CME observed early on February 17. Quiet to unsettled is expected for February 21.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Cristal del Uruguay before 03h UTC, after 04h UTC WLAM Lewiston ME. While no North American stations were audible at 03h  UTC, propagation improved quickly after 04 UTC with a fair to strong signal noted from WWZN 1510.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.