Last major update issued on November 18, 2005 at 05:50 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 9, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update November 2, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was inactive to quiet on November 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 277 and 339 (all day average 302) km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 100.5. The planetary
index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 10210000 (planetary), 00211110 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 3 C class event was recorded during the day.
Region 10822 gained several spots in the intermediate spot section and further M class flares are possible. Flares: C1.2 at 21:13, C1.9 at 21:49 and C4.4 at 23:38 UTC.
November 15 and 17: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
November 16: A filament eruption was observed in the northwest quadrant near the equator beginning at 13:48 UTC in SOHO EIT images. The peak activity was observed 15-16h UTC and a slow partial halo CME could be seen in LASCO C3 images after 18:42 UTC. This CME spanned about 180 degrees at midnight UTC and could reach Earth.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH198) was in an Earth facing position on November 16.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 18-20. There is a chance a low speed stream from CH198 could arrive on Nov.19, as could the partial CME observed on Nov.16. If any of these arrive we could see unsettled to active conditions during the latter half of Nov.19 and on Nov. 20.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: WWNN Pompano Beach FL and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation was best to New York, Florida (exceptional signal from 1080 WVCG Coral Gables noted) and the Caribbean.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||52||39|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(28.9 predicted, -2.7)|
|2005.06||93.7||39.6||(27.3 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(26.1 predicted, -1.2)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(24.3 predicted, -1.8)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(22.2 predicted, -2.1)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(20.2 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.11||83.6 (1)||15.1 (2)||(17.8 predicted, -2.4)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.