Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 4, 2005 at 03:30 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update October 2, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 361 and 441 (all day average 397) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 74.3. The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 23221121 (planetary), 23333121 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.

At midnight there was one spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day. Old region 10808 is at the southeast limb. While this region has been mostly quiet while on the back side, it may still possess M class flare potential.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S597] This region emerged quickly on October 3 in the southeast quadrant. The opposite polarity areas are currently poorly separated and further development is possible. Location at midnight: S07E42.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 1-3: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A very small recurrent coronal hole (CH190) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on October 2. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH191) will rotate to an Earth facing position on October 6-8.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on October 4. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet October 4-8, some unsettled intervals are possible on October 5 due to effects from CH190. A high speed stream from CH191 will likely arrive on October 9 and cause quiet to active conditions until October 11 becoming quiet to unsettled on October 12.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Lots of trans Atlantic stations were heard throughout the MW band. A few stations from Colombia and Venezuela were audible while some stations in the Caribbean had unusually strong signals. Most of the signals noted were from Canada and the easternmost parts of the USA. Several stations were very strong and rivaled those of European stations on nearby frequencies.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.