Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 19, 2005 at 04:35 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update October 2, 2005)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 18. Solar wind speed ranged between 307 and 385 (all day average 338) km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 78.3. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.4).
Three hour interval K indices: 13112111 (planetary), 13124221 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.

At midnight there was one spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10815 added a small trailing spot and was quiet.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 16-18: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH193) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on October 21. CH193 did not cause any disturbance during the previous rotation.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on October 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 19 and quiet on October 20-23. Quiet to active conditions are possible on October 24-25 due to effects from CH193.

Coronal holes (1)	Coronal mass ejections (2)	M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) and WWNN Boca Raton (FL). Lots of stations from North America were heard with weak to fair signals. WIOD Miami on 610 kHz was easily audible and the single signal on the frequency.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.