Last major update issued on October 22, 2005 at 05:00 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2005)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update October 2, 2005)]
The geomagnetic field was inactive to unsettled on October 21. Solar wind speed ranged between 283 and 357 (all day average 298) km/sec. A low speed coronal hole stream (with its origin in a small northern hemisphere coronal hole) arrived late in the day and caused a significant increase in activity levels.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 75.3. The planetary
index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 00000113 (planetary), 00101112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10815 was quiet.
October 19-21: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH193) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on October 20-21. CH193 did not cause any disturbance during the previous rotation. Recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole CH194 will rotate to an Earth facing position on October 22-23.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 00:05 UTC on October 22. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active conditions on October 22-26 due to coronal hole effects (multiple coronal holes).
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela) with a strong signal after 02h UTC. Between 21:30 and 22:30 UTC both WLAM and WWNN were noted. Several daytime signals from US east coast stations were audible at that time. KBRW on 680 was heard earlier the same evening. After 02h UTC there were quite a few stations from Cuba, Venezuela and Colombia around while signals from North America were fewer and weaker than during the previous days.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10815||2005.10.14||5||1||N07W19||0020||CAO||classification was AXX at midnight, area 0010|
|Total spot count:||5||1|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.04||86.0||24.4||(31.9 predicted, -1.6)|
|2005.05||99.3||42.6||(29.4 predicted, -2.5)|
|2005.06||93.7||39.6||(28.1 predicted, -1.3)|
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(26.9 predicted, -1.2)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(25.0 predicted, -1.9)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(23.0 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.10||78.5 (1)||10.5 (2)||(21.0 predicted, -2.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.