Last major update issued on November 1, 2005 at 04:15 UTC.
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(last update October 2, 2005)]
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 31. Solar wind speed ranged between 333 and 382 (all day average 354) km/sec. A geomagnetic disturbance began after 10h UTC when the interplanetary magnetic field swung gradually more southwards (resembling the passage of a magnetic cloud) reaching a peak near 17h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.8. The planetary
A
index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
indices: 13.9).
Three hour interval K indices: 11123434 (planetary), 12133423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A3 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10818 developed slowly and quietly.
New region 10819 developed to the east southeast of region 10818.
October 29-31: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28
days ago 27 days ago 26
days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH195) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on November 1-3.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on November 1. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 1-3 becoming quiet to active on November 4-6 due to effects from CH195.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Propagation was good to Venezuela with RCR (Caracas) on 750 kHz the strongest signal of any trans Atlantic station. Radio América in Valencia had no problems with other stations on 890 kHz.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10817 | 2005.10.23 | N04W83 | plage | ||||
10818 | 2005.10.29 | 6 | 7 | S08E32 | 0040 | DSO | classification was DAO at midnight, area 0060 |
10819 | 2005.10.31 | 3 | 6 | S09E25 | 0020 | CSO | classification was DAO at midnight, area 0040 |
S599 | 2005.10.22 | S08W80 | plage | ||||
Total spot count: | 9 | 13 | |||||
SSN: | 29 | 33 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2004.08 | 109.6 | 40.9 | 39.2 (-1.0) |
2004.09 | 103.1 | 27.7 | 37.5 (-1.7) |
2004.10 | 105.9 | 48.0 | 35.9 (-1.6) |
2004.11 | 113.2 | 43.5 | 35.3 (-0.6) |
2004.12 | 94.5 | 17.9 | 35.2 (-0.1) |
2005.01 | 102.2 | 31.3 | 34.6 (-0.6) |
2005.02 | 97.2 | 29.2 | 33.9 (-0.7) |
2005.03 | 89.9 | 24.5 | 33.5 (-0.4) |
2005.04 | 86.0 | 24.4 | (31.9 predicted, -1.6) |
2005.05 | 99.3 | 42.6 | (29.4 predicted, -2.5) |
2005.06 | 93.7 | 39.6 | (28.1 predicted, -1.3) |
2005.07 | 96.4 | 39.9 | (26.9 predicted, -1.2) |
2005.08 | 90.5 | 36.4 | (25.0 predicted, -1.9) |
2005.09 | 91.1 | 22.1 | (23.0 predicted, -2.0) |
2005.10 | 77.0 (1) | 13.0 (2) | (21.0 predicted, -2.0) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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