Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on August 31, 2006 at 03:25 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update August 6, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update August 6, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update August 6, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update August 6, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 30. Solar wind speed ranged between 438 and 573 km/s (all day average 496 km/s - decreasing 45 km/s from the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 74.2. The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11321112 (planetary), 12332212 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Region 10905 decayed further and was quiet.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S673] This region emerged on August 30 just east of the trailing negative polarity area of region 10905. S673 has an east-west oriented inversion line and has developed quickly initially. C flares are possible.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 28-30: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in incomplete LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH238) was in an Earth facing position on August 29-31.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:08 UTC on August 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 31. A high speed stream from CH238 can cause unsettled to major storm conditions on September 1-3.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. While a few Newfoundland stations had fair signals, neither 1130 nor 1510 WWZN were audible at more than weak signal levels. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good. Strong signals were noted from 930 Radio Montecarlo and 1410 AM Libre (both Uruguay) and 1190 Radio América (Argentina).

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.