Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on December 12, 2006 at 05:40 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update November 12, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update November 12, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on December 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 566 and 834 km/s (all day average 655 km/s - increasing 61 km/s over the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH251. Solar wind speed increased late in the day to levels usually observed with high speed streams near solar maximum. The coronal hole may have been created by the intense flare activity in region 10930 when it was near the east limb.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 92.2. The planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.4). Three hour interval K indices: 34311125 (planetary), 32422224 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 3 C class events was recorded during the day.

Region 10930 developed in the southern part of the main penumbra while some leading small spots disappeared. There is a magnetic delta structure in the southernmost part of that penumbra and there is still a chance of an M class flare. Flares: C1.4 at 01:20, C2.6/1F at 05:17 and C5.7 at 08:18 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 9-11: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or approaching Earth facing positions. CH251 was in an Earth facing position on December 7-9.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 24. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on December 12, perhaps with an isolated major storm interval, due to effects from CH251. Quiet to unsettled is likely on December 13-14.

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: 930 CJYQ had a fair signal at 04h UTC, 1510 WWZN was very weak. Otherwise only a few stations from Newfoundland and Nova Scotia were occasionally observed with audio. The strongest TA signal was that of 1290 Radio Puerto Cabello.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Monthly solar cycle data

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.