Last major update issued on December 29, 2006 at 06:05 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 318 and 350 km/s (all day average 340 km/s - decreasing 39 km/s from the previous day).
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 76.3. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.8). Three hour interval K indices: 00000102 (planetary), 01001101 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10931 reemerged with a single small spot.
December 26-28: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28
days ago
27
days ago
26
days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH254) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on December 30-31.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on December 29. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on December 29 - January 1. A high speed wind from CH254 will likely cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on January 2-3.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: The most common east coast North American stations were heard with mostly weak signals during the night. Some stations from Puerto Rico, Cuba, Colombia and Venezuela were audible as well.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered | SEC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | Classification | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10931 | 2006.12.25 | 1 | S07E14 | 0000 | AXX | ||
10932 | 2006.12.25 | S08W05 | plage | ||||
Total spot count: | 0 | 1 | |||||
SSN: | 0 | 11 |
Month | Average solar flux at Earth |
International sunspot number | Smoothed sunspot number |
---|---|---|---|
2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 |
2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) |
2005.09 | 91.1 | 21.9 | 25.8 (-1.6) |
2005.10 | 77.0 | 8.7 | 25.5 (-0.3) |
2005.11 | 86.3 | 18.0 | 24.9 (-0.6) |
2005.12 | 90.7 | 41.1 | 23.0 (-1.9) |
2006.01 | 83.4 | 15.3 | 20.8 (-2.2) |
2006.02 | 76.5 | 4.9 | 18.6 (-2.2) |
2006.03 | 75.4 | 10.6 | 17.3 (-1.3) |
2006.04 | 89.0 | 30.2 | 17.1 (-0.2) |
2006.05 | 80.9 | 22.2 | 17.3 (+0.2) |
2006.06 | 76.5 | 13.9 | (16.3 predicted, -1.0) |
2006.07 | 75.7 | 12.2 | (14.7 predicted, -1.6) |
2006.08 | 79.0 | 12.9 | (14.2 predicted, -0.5) |
2006.09 | 77.8 | 14.5 | (14.1 predicted, -0.1) |
2006.10 | 74.3 | 10.4 | (13.0 predicted, -1.1) |
2006.11 | 86.3 | 21.5 | (11.5 predicted, -1.5) |
2006.12 | 84.9 (1) | 20.9 (2) | (11.3 predicted, -0.2) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
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