Last major update issued on January 8, 2006 at 05:40 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update January 8, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2004 (last update February 1, 2005)]
[Archived reports (last update January 8, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet to quiet on January 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 349 and 442 (all day average 376) km/sec.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 79.2. The planetary A
index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 11221210 (planetary), 12321122 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
Region 10845 was quiet and stable.
January 5-7: No obviously fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH204) could rotate to an Earth facing position on January 8.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on January 8. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on January 8-12 with a possibility of unsettled intervals on January 11-12 due to effects from CH204.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WLAM Lewiston ME and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). On other frequencies stations from Cuba and Venezuela enjoyed the best reception. Interestingly more western paths were open at 05h UTC with KOMO Seattle on 1000 kHz heard with a nice signal.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||1||1|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.07||96.4||39.9||(29.1 predicted, +0.3)|
|2005.08||90.5||36.4||(27.4 predicted, -1.7)|
|2005.09||91.1||22.1||(25.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.10||77.0||8.5||(23.4 predicted, -2.0)|
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(21.0 predicted, -2.4)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(18.2 predicted, -2.8)|
|2006.01||83.6 (1)||6.5 (2)||(15.2 predicted, -3.0)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.