Last major update issued on June 18, 2006 at 04:10 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update June 5, 2006)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 17. Solar wind speed ranged between 536 and 593 km/s (all day average 567 km/s - decreasing 10 km/s from the previous day) under the influence of a high speed stream from CH228.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 73.2. The planetary A index
was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 23422231 (planetary), 23423221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A1 level.
At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
New region 10896 emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 15 and was noticed by NOAA/SEC two days later. The region developed slowly on June 17.
June 15-17: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH228) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on June 12-13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 18. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on June 18-21.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Radio Cristal del Uruguay was again the best signal on that frequency. Otherwise propagation favored stations from Uruguay and southern Brazil with a few signals from Argentina, Chile and Paraguay.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10895||2006.06.17||1||N00E09||0010||AXX||formerly region S662
|10896||2006.06.17||7||6||S12E28||0020||CSO||formerly region S663
area was 0010 at midnight, location: S10E27
|Total spot count:||12||6|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(22.8 predicted, -2.1)|
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(20.1 predicted, -2.7)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(17.1 predicted, -3.0)|
|2006.03||75.4||10.8||(15.1 predicted, -2.0)|
|2006.04||89.0||30.2||(14.4 predicted, -0.7)|
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(13.5 predicted, -0.9)|
|2006.06||76.6 (1)||16.0 (2)||(11.4 predicted, -2.1)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.