Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on June 24, 2006 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update June 7, 2006)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2005 (last update March 3, 2006)]
[Archived reports (last update June 5, 2006)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive to very quiet on June 23. Solar wind speed ranged between 272 and 413 km/s (all day average 322 km/s - decreasing 7 km/s from the previous day).

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 71.8. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.1).
Three hour interval K indices: 10001111 (planetary), 20001111 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A1 level.

At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 21-23: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH229) will likely be in an Earth facing position from late on June 24 until noon on June 26.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:06 UTC on June 24. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on June 24-26 and quiet to active on June 27-29 due to effects from CH229.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Radio Cristal del Uruguay was the dominant signal. Propagation was best about 30 minutes after LSR when quite a few stations from Argentina and Uruguay were noted.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SEC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area Classification Comment
10895 2006.06.17     N00W69     plage
10896 2006.06.17     S10W51     plage
Total spot count: 0 0  
SSN: 0 0  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar
flux at Earth
International sunspot number Smoothed sunspot number
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)
2005.04 86.0 24.2 31.6 (-1.9)
2005.05 99.3 42.7 28.9 (-2.7)
2005.06 93.7 39.3 28.8 (-0.1)
2005.07 96.4 40.1 29.1 (+0.3)
2005.08 90.5 36.4 27.4 (-1.7)
2005.09 91.1 21.9 25.8 (-1.6)
2005.10 77.0 8.5 25.5 (-0.3)
2005.11 86.3 18.0 24.9 (-0.6)
2005.12 90.7 41.2 (22.8 predicted, -2.1)
2006.01 83.4 15.4 (20.1 predicted, -2.7)
2006.02 76.5 4.7 (17.1 predicted, -3.0)
2006.03 75.4 10.8 (15.1 predicted, -2.0)
2006.04 89.0 30.2 (14.4 predicted, -0.7)
2006.05 80.9 22.2 (13.5 predicted, -0.9)
2006.06 75.6 (1) 18.7 (2) (11.4 predicted, -2.1)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.


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