Last major update issued on May 20, 2006 at 04:40 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 19. Solar wind speed ranged between 478 and 566 (all day average 532) km/sec under the influence of a high speed stream from CH225.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 75.3. The planetary A index
was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
Three hour interval K indices: 22301223 (planetary), 12312222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A2 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
New region 10884 emerged in the southeast quadrant on May 18 and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SEC. The region developed penumbra on both polarities on May 19.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S654] This region emerged to the east of region 10884 on May 19. Location at midnight: S12E58.
May 17-19: No partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report with the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH225) in the southern hemisphere was an Earth facing position on May 16-18.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on May 19. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 20-21 due to a high speed stream from CH225 and quiet on May 22-24.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair. Trans Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Radio Cristal del Uruguay had the dominant signal tonight. Before LSR several stations from Newfoundland and the northeastern USA were heard at poor to fair signal levels with 1510 WWZN coming in well. After LSR quite a few stations from Argentina became audible with the best signals from 1510 Radio Belgrano and 1190 Radio América.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|10884||2006.05.19||5||6||S13E47||0020||BXO||formerly region S653
classification was DSO at midnight, area 0040
|Total spot count:||5||9|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2005.11||86.3||18.0||(24.5 predicted, -1.0)|
|2005.12||90.7||41.2||(21.8 predicted, -2.7)|
|2006.01||83.4||15.4||(18.7 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.02||76.5||4.7||(15.6 predicted, -3.1)|
|2006.03||75.4||10.8||(13.4 predicted, -2.2)|
|2006.04||89.0||30.2||(12.7 predicted, -0.7)|
|2006.05||80.5 (1)||21.4 (2)||(12.2 predicted, -0.5)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.