Last major update issued on November 8, 2006 at 04:30 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
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[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 2, 2006)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 2, 2006)]
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The geomagnetic field was inactive on November 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 283 and 324 km/s (all day average 294 km/s - decreasing 45 km/s from the previous day)..
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.1. The planetary A index was 0 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 0.0). Three hour interval K indices: 00000000 (planetary), 00002000 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was low. A total of 3 C class events was recorded during the day.
Region 10921 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 10922 decayed slowly and could soon become spotless.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S680] A large region began to rotate into view at the central east limb late on November 7. Location at midnight: S01E84. M flares are possible from this region which has been the source of several large and fast CMEs during the last several days. Flares: C1.2 at 00:41, C3.0 at 12:55 and C6.5 at 13:46 UTC.
November 5-7: No obvious partly or fully Earth directed CMEs were detected in LASCO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, CH247, was in an Earth facing position on November 6-7.
Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on November 7. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 8 and become quiet to active on November 9-11 due to a high speed stream from CH247.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: Again there were many stations from North America audible during the night, although stations from the Canadian Atlantic provinces had below average signals. Audio on several Newfoundland stations were heard as early as 19h UTC while 1510 WWZN was strong already at 20:30 UTC.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||6||7|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2006.05||80.9||22.2||(16.8 predicted, -0.3)|
|2006.06||76.5||13.9||(15.1 predicted, -1.7)|
|2006.07||75.7||12.2||(13.2 predicted, -1.9)|
|2006.08||79.0||12.9||(12.7 predicted, -0.5)|
|2006.09||77.8||14.5||(12.6 predicted, -0.1)|
|2006.10||74.3||10.4||(11.5 predicted, -1.1)|
|2006.11||86.2 (1)||11.1 (2)||(10.1 predicted, -1.4)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.