Last major update issued on November 13, 2007 at 06:05 UTC.
geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update October 3, 2007)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 416 km/s (average speed was 359 km/s, increasing 2 km/s over the previous day). The leading part of the high speed stream associated with CH298 arrived late in the day.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 69.7. The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.3). Three hour interval K indices: 10000112 (planetary), 00001112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.
At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.
November 10-12: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery.
history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH298) was in an Earth facing position on November 10-14. A new coronal hole (CH299) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on November 15-16 while a recurrent coronal hole (CH300) in the southern hemisphere could do the same on November 17-18.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on November 13. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes was excellent and is quickly deteriorating. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: November 10-11: Strong signals from North American stations were present on nearly all TA frequencies as early as 21h UTC. Conditions are widespread as stations from the eastern, central and western parts are all heard, some with excellent signals. The best Trans Atlantic propagation sector was 270-330 degrees.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on November 13-21 with a chance of minor storm intervals on November 14-15 and 20-21.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots. SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SEC
|Location at midnight||Area||Classification||Comment|
|Total spot count:||0||0|
flux at Earth
|International sunspot number||Smoothed sunspot number|
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2007.05||74.4||11.7||(8.7 predicted, -1.2)|
|2007.06||73.7||12.0||(7.5 predicted, -1.2)|
|2007.07||71.6||10.0||(6.7 predicted, -0.8)|
|2007.08||69.1||6.2||(6.2 predicted, -0.5)|
|2007.09||67.1||2.4||(6.2 predicted, +0.0)|
|2007.10||67.4||0.9||(6.7 predicted, +0.5)|
|2007.11||68.6 (1)||0.3 (2)||(7.3 predicted, +0.6)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.