Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on February 15, 2010 at 05:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update January 3, 2010)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 276 and 330 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field become stronger and was moderately southwards after 21h UTC. This caused an increase in geomagnetic disturbance levels.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.4. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 00111003 (planetary), 00222012 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.

Region 11046 decayed further and was quiet.
Region 11048 was mostly unchanged. Occasional C flares are possible. Flare: C4.3 at 12:04 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 13-14: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images.
February 12: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO images after the M8 flare in region 11046.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH392) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on February 11-12. A new coronal hole (CH393) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 15.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 23:12 UTC on February 14. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on February 15-16 due to CME  and coronal hole effects. Quiet conditions are likely on February 17 and quiet to unsettled on February 18 as another coronal hole stream becomes geoeffective.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SWPC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area SWPC
Classification
Comment
11046 2010.02.07 6 6 N24W23 0070 CAO  
11047 2010.02.08     S18W09     plage
11048 2010.02.13 2 2 N20E64 0010 BXO classification was CSO at midnight, area 0040
Total spot count: 8 8  
SSN: 28 28  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average Ap
(3)
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
 
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8  
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)  
2008.07 65.7 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2009.01 69.8 1.3 1.8 (+0.1) 3.70
2009.02 70.0 1.4 1.9 (+0.1) 4.68
2009.03 69.2 0.7 2.0 (+0.1) 4.85
2009.04 69.7 1.2 2.2 (+0.2) 4.52
2009.05 70.5 2.9 2.3 (+0.1) 4.75
2009.06 68.6 2.6 2.7 (+0.4) 5.22
2009.07 68.2 3.5 3.6 (+0.9) 5.49 / 4.55
2009.08 67.3 0.0 (5.0 predicted, +1.4) 5.70 / 4.89
2009.09 70.5 4.2 (6.8 predicted, +1.8) 3.88 / 3.61
2009.10 72.6 4.6 (8.7 predicted, +1.9) 3.66 / 3.56
2009.11 73.6 4.2 (10.7 predicted, +2.0) 2.45 / 2.63
2009.12 76.7 10.6 (12.9 predicted, +2.2) 1.41 / 1.92
2010.01 81.1 13.1 (15.4 predicted, +2.5) 2.93 / 3.07
2010.02 86.0 (1) 18.0 (2) (18.3 predicted, +2.9) (4.54)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.