Last major update issued on November 7, 2010 at 06:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update October 9, 2010)]
[POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009]
The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 270 and 356 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 88.6 (up 12.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 0.8). Three hour interval K indices: 00000101 (planetary), 00001211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 2 spotted regions.
Region 11121 lost the rudimentary penumbra in the trailing spot
section, however, the region remains very hot. Further M class flares are
possible. Flares: C2.0 at 02:38, C4.5 at
04:47, C1.6 at 08:32, major M5.4/1N long duration event peaking at 15:36 and
C1.4 at 19:11 UTC. The major flare was associated with a CME, however, with no
LASCO images available and STEREO images indicating only a small CME, it's too
early to predict whether or not the CME could reach Earth.
New region 11122 emerged early in the day in the northern hemisphere near the central meridian.
November 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No significant coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is very good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 7-9.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|Total spot count:||13||19|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||(15.4 predicted, +1.4)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||(16.8 predicted, +1.4)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(18.4 predicted, +1.6)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(19.6 predicted, +1.2)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(20.9 predicted, +1.3)||5.33|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||(23.2 predicted, +2.3)||6.07|
|2010.11||81.2 (1)||5.7 (2A) / 28.5 (2B)||(26.2 predicted, +3.0)||(2.13)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.