Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 28, 2010 at 02:50 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 2, 2010)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update October 9, 2010)]

NEW [POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on October 27. Solar wind speed ranged between 465 and 553 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 87.6 (down 2.3 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index  was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11101022 (planetary), 11212121 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A9 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 2 spotted regions.

Region 11117 decayed in the trailing spot section and appears to be maturing. Flare: C1.2 at 17:04 UTC.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S829] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on October 27. Location at midnight: S20W45

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 25 and 27: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
October 26: A CME was observed starting at about 09h UTC following activity near region 11115. Although the CME will probably not reach Earth, there's a chance of a glancing blow.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions. An extension of the southern polar coronal hole rotated across the central meridian on October 27-28 but is likely too far to the south to cause a disturbance.

Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on October 28. On October 29-30 there's a chance of unsettled intervals should the CME observed on October 26 reach Earth.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
image
Comment
SWPC STAR SWPC STAR Current Previous
11115 2010.10.15 1   S29W90 0080 HSX     rotated out of view
11118 2010.10.19     N14W31           plage
11117 2010.10.19 21 25 N22W28 0120 EKC DHI area: 0550
11119 2010.10.19 1   N24W60 0010 AXX     spotless
S829 2010.10.28   1 S20W45 0000   AXX  
Total spot count: 23 26  
SSN: 53 46  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
 
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8  
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)  
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2009.07 68.2 3.2 3.6 (+0.9) 5.49 / 4.55
2009.08 67.3 0.0 4.8 (+1.2) 5.70 / 4.89
2009.09 70.5 4.3 6.2 (+1.4) 3.88 / 3.61
2009.10 72.6 4.8 7.1 (+0.9) 3.66 / 3.56
2009.11 73.6 4.1 7.6 (+0.5) 2.45 / 2.63
2009.12 76.7 10.8 8.3 (+0.7) 1.41 / 1.92
2010.01 81.1 13.2 9.3 (+1.0) 2.93 / 3.07
2010.02 84.7 18.8 10.6 (+1.3) 4.15 / 4.61
2010.03 83.4 15.4 12.3 (+1.7) 4.58 / 4.65
2010.04 75.9 8.0 (13.9 predicted, +1.6) 10.22 / 10.24
2010.05 73.8 8.7 (15.2 predicted, +1.3) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 (16.7 predicted, +1.5) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 (18.3 predicted, +1.6) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 (19.5 predicted, +1.2) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 (20.7 predicted, +1.2) 5.33
2010.10 81.2 (1) 31.0 (2A) / 35.6 (2B) (23.1 predicted, +2.4) (6.55)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.