Last major update issued on August 10, 2011 at 03:50 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 466 and 616 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH469.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 97.5 (increasing 2.9 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33321122 (planetary), 33332122 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 6 spotted regions.
Region 11263 produced the largest flare of cycle 24 and remains
capable of producing another major flare while at or near the northwest limb.
Flares: M2.5/1B at 03:54, C1.4 at 07:23, major X6.9/2B at 08:05 (associated
with weak type II and IV radio sweeps and a full, fast halo CME), C2.2 at 13:45,
C2.4 at 15:54, C3.9 at 23:43 UTC
Region 11266 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11267 was quiet and stable
Region 11268 was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1159] emerged in the northeast quadrant on August 9. Location at
midnight: N19E46
[S1160] emerged in the northeast quadrant bordering CH471 on August 9.
Location at midnight: N09E26
August 7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or
STEREO imagery.
August 8: The M3.5 flare in region 11263 produced a fast partial halo CME.
August 9: The X6.9 event in region 11263 was associated with a fast full
halo CME.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH471) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on August 11-13.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on August 10. On August 11 the partial halo CME observed on August 8 could reach Earth, however, there's a chance the August 9 CME could reach us first. As the CMEs are from near limb events the disturbance level will likely reach unsettled to active with a chance of minor storming. Quiet to unsettled is likely on August 12 becoming quiet on August 13. A high speed stream from CH471 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on August 14-16.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11263 | 2011.07.27 2011.07.28 |
8 | 10 | N17W81 | 0340 | EHC | EHC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N18W78 |
| 11266 | 2011.08.02 2011.08.04 |
13 | 14 | N19W26 | 0070 | DSO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0040 |
| S1152 | 2011.08.03 | S07W12 | plage | |||||||
| 11267 | 2011.08.04 2011.08.05 |
3 | 5 | S15W30 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0000 location: S17W26 |
| 11268 | 2011.08.05 2011.08.06 |
7 | N20W10 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N19W03 | ||
| S1156 | 2011.08.06 | S23W58 | plage | |||||||
| S1157 | 2011.08.07 | S20E49 | plage | |||||||
| S1158 | 2011.08.07 | S17W39 | plage | |||||||
| S1159 | 2011.08.09 | 1 | N19E46 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S1160 | 2011.08.09 | 3 | N09E26 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 24 | 40 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 54 | 100 | (raw spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Classification adjusted SN: | 39 | 53 | (Sum of raw spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 32 | 33 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | (33.6 predicted, +2.6) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | (36.6 predicted, +3.0) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (39.4 predicted, +2.8) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | (42.7 predicted, +3.3) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | (46.5 predicted, +3.8) | 8.96 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | (50.6 predicted, +4.1) | 9.14 |
| 2011.08 | 111.8 (1) | 25.1 (2A) / 86.3 (2B) | (54.8 predicted, +4.2) | (13.93) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
