Last major update issued on January 4, 2011 at 04:45 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update January 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update
January 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update
January 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update January
1, 2011)]
[POES auroral activity level
charts since October 2009]
[Annotated geomagnetic
activity chart - Carrington rotation 2104 - NEW]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 285 and 435 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 92.1 (up 5.0 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 00001222 (planetary), 01011221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 3 spotted regions.
Region 11140 was quiet and unchanged.
Region 11141 lost penumbra on the leader spots while some new trailing
spots emerged.
Region 11142 developed significantly adding many intermediate spots.
Further C flares and a minor M class flare will be likely if the current rate of
development continues. Flare: C1.1 at 23:35
UTC.
January 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH431) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 3-4, however, the southernmost parts of CH431 may be too far to the north to be geoeffective. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH432) will be Earth facing on January 4-5. A recurrent coronal hole (CH433) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 9-11.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 4-6. Although mostly quiet conditions are likely on January 7, weak effects from CH431 are possible. CH432 could cause some unsettled intervals on January 8-9.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500 image |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11139 | 2010.12.27 | S30W23 | plage | |||||||
| S854 | 2010.12.30 | S25W59 | plage | |||||||
| 11141 | 2011.01.01 | 7 | 10 | N35W50 | 0020 | BXO | BXI |
 |
 |
|
| 11140 | 2010.12.31 | 1 | 1 | N32E25 | 0180 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| 11142 | 2011.01.01 | 13 | 25 | S13E07 | 0120 | DSI | ESI |
 |
 |
area: 0210 |
| Total spot count: | 21 | 36 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 51 | 66 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2009.10 | 72.6 | 4.8 | 7.1 (+0.9) | 3.66 / 3.56 |
| 2009.11 | 73.6 | 4.1 | 7.6 (+0.5) | 2.45 / 2.63 |
| 2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.8 | 8.3 (+0.7) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
| 2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.2 | 9.3 (+1.0) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | (17.0 predicted, +0.6) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | (17.9 predicted, +0.9) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | (19.0 predicted, +1.1) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | (20.7 predicted, +1.7) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.6 | (23.0 predicted, +2.3) | 4.80 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.5 | (25.3 predicted, +2.3) | 3.41 |
| 2011.01 | 91.4 (1) | 5.0 (2A) / 51.3 (2B) | (27.7 predicted, +2.4) | (3.38) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number
(accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
the
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
