Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on January 8, 2011 at 01:45 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update January 2, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update January 2, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update January 2, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports from January 2003 (last update January 1, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level charts since October 2009]
[Annotated geomagnetic activity chart - Carrington rotation 2104 - NEW]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 479 and 618 km/s under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 86.4 (down 0.5 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index  was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.0). Three hour interval K indices: 42222123 (planetary), 42332222 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 5 spotted regions.

Region 11139 was mostly unchanged and will be rotating out of view at the southwest limb.
Region 11140 added a few small spots to the north of the single penumbra.
Region 11142 lost the leader spots and will likely become spotless today.
New region 11143 emerged in the southeast quadrant on January 5 and was noticed by NOAA/SWPC two days later. The region added several small spots on January 7.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S860] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on January 7. Location at midnight: S13W12

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH432) was Earth facing on January 4-5. A recurrent coronal hole (CH433) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on January 9-11.

The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 8-9 due to effects from CH432. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on January 10-11.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
image
Comment
SWPC STAR SWPC STAR Current Previous
11139 2010.12.27 3 3 S27E74 0010 AXX BXO  
11140 2010.12.31 3 4 N33W24 0140 CSO CSO

 

11142 2011.01.01 2 3 S14W45 0000 AXX AXX  
S858 2011.01.05     N19W59           plage
11143 2011.01.07 4 11 S22E16 0020 DSO DRO formerly region S859
S860 2011.01.07   3 S13W12 0000   BXO  

 

Total spot count: 12 24  
Sunspot number: 52 74  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2009.10 72.6 4.8 7.1 (+0.9) 3.66 / 3.56
2009.11 73.6 4.1 7.6 (+0.5) 2.45 / 2.63
2009.12 76.7 10.8 8.3 (+0.7) 1.41 / 1.92
2010.01 81.1 13.2 9.3 (+1.0) 2.93 / 3.07
2010.02 84.7 18.8 10.6 (+1.3) 4.15 / 4.61
2010.03 83.4 15.4 12.3 (+1.7) 4.58 / 4.65
2010.04 75.9 8.0 14.0 (+1.7) 10.22 / 10.24
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 (17.0 predicted, +0.6) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 (17.9 predicted, +0.9) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 (19.0 predicted, +1.1) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 (20.7 predicted, +1.7) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.6 (23.0 predicted, +2.3) 4.80
2010.12 84.2 14.5 (25.3 predicted, +2.3) 3.41
2011.01 89.4 (1) 10.9 (2A) / 48.3 (2B) (27.7 predicted, +2.4) (4.98)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.