Last major update issued on July 8, 2011 at 04:30 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2109 [April-May 2011] - 2110 [May-June 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 338 and 373 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 85.5 (decreasing 1.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.4). Three hour interval K indices: 32121121 (planetary), 32221122 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted regions.
Region 11243 lost penumbral area, however, there is still minor
polarity intermixing to the north of the single penumbra.
Flare: C1.0 at 02:43 UTC
New region 11245 emerged near the northeast limb on July 6 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region is developing and could be forming a penumbra containing both polarity spots.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1095] reemerged with tiny spots on July 7. Location at midnight: N15W35
[S1096] rotated into view at the southeast limb on July 4. Location at midnight: S20E25
[S1101] emerged in the southeastern quadrant on July 6. Location at midnight: S16E33
[S1103] rotated into view at the northeastern limb on July 6. Location at midnight: N20E71
[S1104] emerged in the southeastern quadrant on July 7. Location at midnight: S17E55
July 5-7: No obviously earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A coronal hole (CH463) in the northern hemisphere was Earth facing on July 5-6. A recurrent coronal hole (CH464) in the southern hemisphere will become Earth facing on July 7-8. A trans equatorial coronal hole has been developing over the last couple of days. If it doesn't merge with CH464 it will be numbered tomorrow.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on July 8. A high speed stream from CH463 could arrive during the latter half of July 8 and cause some unsettled and active intervals until July 10. On July 10-11 a high speed stream from CH464 could cause quiet to active conditions. The developing trans equatorial coronal hole could prolong the geomagnetic disturbance until July 13.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
|1||N13W90||0010||AXX||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||12||39|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||15.5 (+1.5)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||16.4 (+0.9)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||28.8 (+2.3)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||(30.6 predicted, +1.8)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||(32.6 predicted, +2.0)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||(35.2 predicted, +2.6)||7.79 / 8.18|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||(38.1 predicted, +2.9)||9.71 / 8.83|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||(41.4 predicted, +3.3)||9.18 / 8.94|
|2011.06||95.8||37.0||(45.2 predicted, +3.8)||8.96|
|2011.07||85.6 (1)||9.6 (2A) / 42.7 (2B)||(49.4 predicted, +4.1)||(9.59)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.