Last major update issued on November 4, 2011 at 06:40 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 3. Solar wind speed ranged between 290 and 433 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 160.4 (increasing 38.4 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11000121 (planetary), 11012221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11330 [N07W85] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 11332 [N32W54] was quiet and stable.
Region 11334 [N13W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11336 [N15E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11337 [N18E27] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11338 [S13E43] was quiet and stable.
Region 11339 [N19E58] is a complex, compact, very large region with the potential to produce X10+ class flares. There is a significant magnetic delta structure in the central part and the region will likely continue to produce lots of flares. Flares: C4.4 at 00:18, C3.4 at 01:30, C2.9 at 03:25, C3.2 at 07:15, C2.1 at 09:44, C3.4 at 10:11, M2.5 at 11:11, C1.5 at 14:08, C3.8 at 14:54, C2.2 at 18:09, C4.5 at 18:53, impulsive major X1.9/2B at 20:27, C5.4/1N at 22:18, C9.2 at 23:13, M2.1 at 23:36 UTC. Initially it appeared as if a large CME observed late in the day was associated with the X1 event. However, the source of that CME was backsided.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1308] emerged in the southeast quadrant on November 3. Location at midnight: S23E60
[S1309] emerged in the southeast quadrant on November 3. Location at midnight: S22E12
November 1-3: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small coronal hole (CH482) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on October 31-November 1. A small coronal hole (CH484) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on November 3.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 4-6 due to weak coronal hole effects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
SWPC seems to be counting the trailing spots of region 11334 as they've lost track of where region 11335 actually is
|Total spot count:||69||91|
|Sunspot number:||149||181||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Classification adjusted SN:||112||122||(Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||89||81||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||28.8 (+2.3)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||31.0 (+2.2)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||33.4 (+2.4)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||36.9 (+3.5)||7.79 / 8.18|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||41.8 (+4.9)||9.71 / 8.83|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||(47.4 predicted, +5.6)||9.18 / 8.94|
|2011.06||95.8||37.0||(52.5 predicted, +5.1)||8.96 / 8.06|
|2011.07||94.2||43.9||(58.2 predicted, +5.7)||9.14 / 8.16|
|2011.08||101.7||50.6||(63.7 predicted, +5.5)||8.16 / 7.26|
|2011.09||133.8||78.0||(67.0 predicted, +3.3)||12.80 / 12.27|
|2011.10||137.3||88.0||(70.5 predicted, +3.5)||7.52|
|2011.11||150.9 (1)||13.4 (2A) / 134.0 (2B)||(74.9 predicted, +4.4)||(11.88)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.