Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on October 7, 2011 at 04:00 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update October 1, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 1, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated October 5, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2113 [July-August 2011] - 2114 [August-September 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 6. Solar wind speed ranged between 347 and 406 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 23h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 123.9 (increasing 12.1 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12112322 (planetary), 13222322 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11305 [N11W80] was quiet and stable.
Region 11306 [N14W60] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11307 [N13W35] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11308 [S26W00] was quiet and stable.
Region 11309 [N23E16] was quiet and stable.
Region 11310 [S33W23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11311 [S12W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 11312 [N23E49] was quiet and stable.
Region 11313 [S14E54] matured and could produce occasional C class flares.

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1251] reemerged on October 6 with a couple of tiny spots. Location at midnight: S20E21
[S1255] emerged in the southeast quadrant on October 6. Location at midnight: S13E27
[S1256] emerged in the southwest quadrant on October 6. Location at midnight: S18W31

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 5-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
October 4: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed. An impressive full halo CME was observed in LASCO images following an eruption in a very active backsided northern hemisphere region. This region will rotate into view in 2-3 days. Several filament eruptions were observed during the latter half of the day in the southern hemisphere. It's uncertain if any of these eruptions produced small partially Earth directed CMEs.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH478) was in an Earth facing position on October 5-6.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on October 7-8. Quiet to active is possible on October 9 due to effects from CH478.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)

 

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11305 2011.09.24
2011.09.25
3 1 N12W80 0220 CSO HHX location: N11W80

area: 0250

11306 2011.09.25
2011.09.26
3 3 N14W59 0010 CRO AXX  
11307 2011.09.27
2011.09.28
  2 N17W25 0000   AXX location: N13W35
11308 2011.09.30
2011.10.01
  2 S25W13 0000   AXX location: S26W06
S1242 2011.09.30     N21W48           plage
S1244 2011.09.30     S27W50           plage
11309 2011.10.01
2011.10.02
5 7 N22E14 0170 CSO CSO

location: N23E16

11310 2011.10.02
2011.10.03
4 3 S33W23 0030 CRO BXO area: 0010
S1249 2011.10.02     N33W22           plage
S1250 2011.10.02     N27W34           plage
S1251 2011.10.03   2 S20E21 0000   AXX    
11311 2011.10.03
2011.10.04
3 6 S12W07 0060 CSO CSO  
11312 2011.10.03
2011.10.04
1 1 N22E48 0210 HSX HHX area: 0330

location: N23E49

11313 2011.10.04
2011.10.05
10 14 S15E52 0180 DAI DAI location: S14E54
S1255 2011.10.06   2 S13E27 0000   BXO    
S1256 2011.10.06   1 S18W31 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 29 44  
Sunspot number: 99 164  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Classification adjusted SN: 60 79  (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 59 54  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (41.1 predicted, +4.2) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (45.2 predicted, +4.1) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (49.2 predicted, +4.0) 8.96
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (53.1 predicted, +3.9) 9.14
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (57.2 predicted, +4.1) 8.16
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (60.3 predicted, +3.1) 12.80
2011.10 129.6 (1) 19.7 (2A) / 102.0 (2B) (61.8 predicted, +1.5) (9.82)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.