Last major update issued on October 13, 2011 at 04:50 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2113 [July-August 2011] - 2114 [August-September 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 317 and 419 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 23h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 134.1 (decreasing 6.6 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.1). Three hour interval K indices: 12212131 (planetary), 12311221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11309 [N23W62] was quiet and stable.
Region 11312 [N23W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 11313 [S13W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11314 [N27E35] has minor polarity intermixing. There's a small chance of a major flare. Flares: C1.7 at 10:40, C1.1 at 15:22, C1.4 at 19:50 UTC.
Region 11315 [N20W17] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 11316 [S12E45] developed quickly and has polarity intermixing. A weak magnetic delta structure could be forming in a small penumbra to the northwest of the large trailing penumbra. A minor M class flare is possible. Flare: C1.7 at 09:51 UTC.
Region 11317 [S26E55] was quiet and stable.
New region 11318 [N21W03] emerged in the northeast quadrant on October 11 and got an SWPC number the next day.
New region 11319 [N10E43] emerged near the northeast limb on October 10 and was noticed by SWPC 2 days later. The region is unstable, has polarity intermixing and could produce a minor M class flare. Flares: C4.4 at 06:18, C1.4 at 07:57, C5.3 at 11:37, C4.3 at 14:20, C1.3 at 16:31, C2.7 at 16:44 UTC.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1271] emerged in the northeast quadrant on October 12. Location at midnight: N07E23
October 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH479) was in an Earth facing position on October 12-13.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to occasionally unsettled on October 13-14. Quiet to active with a chance of minor storm intervals is possible on October 15-16 due to effects from CH479.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||59||96|
|Sunspot number:||149||196||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Classification adjusted SN:||104||147||(Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||89||65||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||28.8 (+2.3)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||31.0 (+2.2)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||33.4 (+2.4)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||36.9 (+3.5)||7.79 / 8.18|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||(41.1 predicted, +4.2)||9.71 / 8.83|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||(45.2 predicted, +4.1)||9.18 / 8.94|
|2011.06||95.8||37.0||(49.2 predicted, +4.0)||8.96|
|2011.07||94.2||43.9||(53.1 predicted, +3.9)||9.14|
|2011.08||101.7||50.6||(57.2 predicted, +4.1)||8.16|
|2011.09||133.8||78.0||(60.3 predicted, +3.1)||12.80|
|2011.10||127.5 (1)||38.1 (2A) / 98.4 (2B)||(61.8 predicted, +1.5)||(8.23)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.