Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on September 9, 2011 at 04:15 UTC. Minor update posted at 13:50 UTC

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update September 1, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update September 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update September 1, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update September 1, 2011)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated September 8, 2011]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2112 [July 2011] -  2113 [July-August 2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 8. Solar wind speed ranged between 293 and 362 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 110.1 (increasing 26.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 12000111 (planetary), 22111310 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11283 decayed slowly losing spots and penumbral area. There's still a magnetic delta structure in the center of the region and another major flare is possible. Flares: C1.7 at 10:50, major M6.7/1N at 15:46 and C1.1 at 22:58 UTC
Region 11287 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11289 decayed in the trailing spot section. C and minor M class flares are possible. Flare: C2.5 at 18:46 UTC

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1199] emerged in the southeast quadrant on September 7. Location at midnight: S15E46

Minor update posted at 13:50 UTC on September 9: A CME arrived at ACE and SOHO a little before 12h UTC. Based on the initial hours of the disturbance we could expect minor to major storm intervals for the remainder of the day, an isolated severe storm interval is possible.

Region 11283 has produced 2 M flares so far today, an M2.7/1N event at 06:11 and an M1.2/1F event at 12:49 UTC.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 6: The CME associated with the major M5 flare in region 11283 was mainly directed outside a direct Earth path. A minor disturbance is possible starting late on September 8 or during the first half of September 9. A wider CME was observed following the X2 flare. This CME will likely impact Earth, probably arriving during the latter half of September 9.
September 7: Lots of CMEs were observed during the day, most were backsided. The CME associated with the X1.8 event in region 11283 may cause a flank impact at Earth on September 10 resulting in a brief increase in disturbance levels.
September 8: Another day with several CMEs observed. None appears to be Earthbound as most of the activity was backsided.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH475) will rotate into an Earth facing position on September 8-10.

The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on September 9. A CME impact is likely during the latter half of the day and could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. On September 11-13 a high speed stream from CH475 could cause quiet to active conditions with a chance of minor storm intervals.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
11281 2011.08.27
2011.08.28
    S15W73          

plage

11283 2011.08.29
2011.08.30
12 18 N16W42 0200 CAO DAO

beta-gamma-delta

location: N14W45

S1190 2011.08.30     S13W56           plage
11287 2011.09.02
2011.09.03
1 4 S30W05 0060 HSX HSX location: S30W03
S1193 2011.09.02     N24W54         plage
11288 2011.09.03
2011.09.04
    N19W08         plage
S1196 2011.09.04     S19W18           plage
11289 2011.09.05
2011.09.06
4 12 N21E51 0370 CHO CHO location: N23E52
S1199 2011.09.07   9 S15E46 0010   BXO  
Total spot count: 17 43  
Sunspot number: 47 83  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Classification adjusted SN: 37 63  (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 28 37  k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 for STAR SDO

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 (36.2 predicted, +2.8) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (39.1 predicted, +2.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (42.4 predicted, +3.3) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 (46.1 predicted, +3.7) 8.96
2011.07 94.2 43.9 (50.3 predicted, +4.2) 9.14
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (54.4 predicted, +4.1) 8.16
2011.09 114.7 (1) 25.9 (2A) /  97.1 (2B) (56.7 predicted, +2.3) (6.06)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.