Last major update issued on September 15, 2011 at 04:55 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 453 and 557 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 142.6 (increasing 44.8 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 21111112 (planetary), 22122222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11287 rotated quietly to the southwest limb.
Region 11289 was mostly quiet and unchanged.
Region 11290 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11291 reemerged with a couple of spots.
Region 11292 was quiet and stable.
Region 11293 developed significantly and could produce C flares.
Region 11294 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11295 added several spots and has mixed polarities. C flares and
minor M class flares are possible. Flares:
C1.8 at 04:18, C3.1 at 23:37 UTC.
Region 11296 developed significantly with a minor magnetic delta
structure forming. There's quite a bit of polarity intermixing and the region
could produce M class flares.
New region 11297 emerged in the southwest quadrant on September 13 and
was numbered the next day by SWPC. The region developed quickly on September 14
with an elongated, twisting penumbra forming in the eastern part of the region.
There's a magnetic delta structure in this penumbra. M flares are possible.
Flares: C1.9 at 08:36, C1.4 at 11:53, C1.8
at 16:06, C4.2 at 16:26, C9.2/1F at 20:51 UTC.
New region 11298 was split off from 11295 by SWPC. The boundaries between
regions 11295, 11296 and 11298 are unclear and further development could lead to
the regions merging.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1203] emerged in the northeast quadrant on September 10, became
spotless quickly, then reemerged with tiny spots on September 12. Location at
midnight: N07E11
[S1217] emerged in the southeast quadrant on September 14. Location at midnight:
S20E42
September 12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs observed.
September 13-14: A bright CME was observed following an eruption in
region 11289 late on September 13. This CME could reach Earth on September 16.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near potentially geoeffective positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 15 and most of September 16. During the latter half of September 16 there's a chance of a CME impact which could cause unsettled to active conditions that day and on September 17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11287 | 2011.09.02 2011.09.03 |
4 | 4 | S27W78 | 0170 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
location: S28W82 area: 0080 |
| 11289 | 2011.09.05 2011.09.06 |
9 | 16 | N24W25 | 0400 | CHO | CHO |
 |
 |
location: N23W25 area: 0450 |
| 11290 | 2011.09.07 2011.09.09 |
4 | 8 | S13W38 | 0030 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S13W40 |
| 11291 | 2011.09.09 2011.09.10 |
2 | N23W57 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
||||
| 11294 | 2011.09.10 2011.09.12 |
7 | 14 | S17W02 | 0050 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S17W00 area: 0020 |
| S1202 | 2011.09.10 | N11W55 | plage | |||||||
| S1203 | 2011.09.10 | 3 | N07E11 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11292 | 2011.09.11 | 2 | 7 | N08E24 | 0030 | CRO | CSO |
 |
 |
|
| 11295 | 2011.09.11 2011.09.12 |
4 | 28 | N20E51 | 0050 | CSO | CAO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N22E46 area: 0100 |
| S1206 | 2011.09.11 | N15W26 | plage | |||||||
| 11293 | 2011.09.11 2011.09.12 |
3 | 12 | N18W38 | 0020 | CSO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0070 |
| 11296 | 2011.09.12 2011.09.13 |
3 | 22 | N26E55 | 0060 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N26E58 area: 0120 |
| S1211 | 2011.09.12 | S33W38 | plage | |||||||
| S1212 | 2011.09.12 | N38W08 | plage | |||||||
| S1213 | 2011.09.13 | S18W14 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1214 | 2011.09.13 | S26W09 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| 11297 | 2011.09.13 2011.09.14 |
4 | 17 | S16W52 | 0040 | DAO | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0180 |
| S1216 | 2011.09.13 | N22W69 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1217 | 2011.09.14 | 1 | S20E42 |
|
plage | |||||
| 11298 | 2011.09.14 | 4 | 14 | N16E52 | 0040 | CSO | CAO |
 |
area: 0060 | |
| Total spot count: | 44 | 148 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 144 | 278 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Classification adjusted SN: | 95 | 196 | (Sum of total spot count + classification adjustment for each AR. Classification adjustment: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 86 | 92 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.33 for STAR SDO | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | 33.4 (+2.4) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | (36.2 predicted, +2.8) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (39.1 predicted, +2.9) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | (42.4 predicted, +3.3) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | (46.1 predicted, +3.7) | 8.96 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | (50.3 predicted, +4.2) | 9.14 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | (54.4 predicted, +4.1) | 8.16 |
| 2011.09 | 118.8 (1) | 45.7 (2A) / 98.0 (2B) | (56.7 predicted, +2.3) | (12.47) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
