Last major update issued on December 15, 2012 at 04:35 UTC.
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December 9, 2012]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 271 and 431 km/s. A disturbance was observed beginning after 17h UTC at ACE.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 119.2 (decreasing 16.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.9). Three hour interval K indices: 11100012 (planetary), 11101112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11628 [N10W48] developed in the trailing spot section while the
leader and central spots decayed.
Region 11631 [N19W34] decayed in the trailing spot section and lost spots
and penumbral area.
Region 11632 [N16W41] decayed with two tiny spots remaining at the end of
the day.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
S2101 [S17W37] was quiet and stable.
S2107 [N21W10] was quiet and stable.
New region S2114 [S08E81] rotated partly into view and could be capable
of producing M class events.
New region S2115 [N04W21] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S2116 [N07E41] emerged with a tiny spot.
A large CME was observed early in the day in LASCO imagery. Its source was well behind the southwest limb. Later on an increase in proton levels was observed and the above 10 MeV flux nearly reached event level.
December 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on December 15 and quiet on December 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11628 | 2012.12.04 2012.12.05 |
12 | 6 | N09W61 | 0250 | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N10W48 see AR 11629 |
||
| 11630 | 2012.12.06 2012.12.09 |
2 | N20W66 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
location: N18W63 spotless |
||||
| S2100 | 2012.12.07 | N05W51 | plage | ||||||||
| 11629 | 2012.12.08 | 12 | N11W49 | 0170 | DAI | same as AR 11628 | |||||
| S2101 | 2012.12.08 | 3 | S17W33 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S2102 | 2012.12.09 | N05W27 | plage | ||||||||
| S2105 | 2012.12.10 | S27W13 | plage | ||||||||
| S2106 | 2012.12.10 | S21E01 | plage | ||||||||
| S2107 | 2012.12.10 | 3 | N21W10 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11631 | 2012.12.11 2012.12.12 |
13 | 18 | 12 | N21W33 | 0100 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N19W34 area: 0160 |
| 11632 | 2012.12.12 | 4 | 2 | N17W42 | 0010 | BXO | AXX |
 |
 |
||
| S2110 | 2012.12.12 | N17W42 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2111 | 2012.12.13 | S25W58 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2112 | 2012.12.13 | N22E15 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2113 | 2012.12.13 | S13W02 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2114 | 2012.12.14 | 5 | 4 | S08E81 | 0400 | DHO |
 |
||||
| S2115 | 2012.12.14 | 6 | N04W21 | 0000 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S2116 | 2012.12.14 | 1 | N07E41 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 31 | 50 | 22 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 71 | 130 | 52 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 41 | 70 | 42 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 43 | 46 | 29 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | 59.5 (+0.5) | 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | 59.9 (+0.4) | 8.28 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | 63.4 (+2.3) | 3.78 |
| 2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | 65.5 (+2.1) | 7.15 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | (59.5 projected, -2.2) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | (58.8 projected, -0.7) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.1 | (60.1 projected, +1.3) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.5 | (61.1 projected, +1.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | (60.7 projected, -0.4) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.4 | (60.0 projected, -0.7) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 103.0 (1) | 24.3 (2A) / 53.8 (2B) / 51.6 (2C) | (59.3 projected, -0.7) | (3.04) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
