Last major update issued on February 12, 2012 at 06:30 UTC. Minor update posted at 13:25 UTC
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 322 and 410 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 112.3 (decreasing 21.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.6). Three hour interval K indices: 21101111 (planetary), 31111211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11416 [S18W03] matured and lost a few spots in the central
part. Although the region has been mostly quiet so far and is fairly simple
magnetically, there's a chance of a minor M class flare.
Flare: C1.5 at 10:44 UTC
Region 11417 [N17E47] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1469] emerged in the southeast quadrant on February 10. Location at midnight:
S23E28
[S1471] emerged in the northwest quadrant on February 11. Location at midnight:
N15W37
A region just behind the northeast limb was quite active during the day producing many C flares. The leading penumbra is becoming visible at the limb early on February 12. Flares: C1.4 at 08:55, C7.9 at 10:44, C2.7 at 16:05, C7.7 at 18:54, C5.3 at 19:12, C2.7 at 20:44, C2.7 at 23:33 UTC.
Minor update posted at 13:25 UTC: Regions S1474 (N28E81 at noon) and S1473 (N11E85 at noon) have rotated into view (see this high resolution map) while the trailing penumbra in region 11416 appears to be splitting into 2 smaller penumbrae. Region S1469 is developing and has added several spots. A low speed stream associated with CH500 arrived at ACE near 06h UTC.
February 10-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
February 9: A filament eruption near region 11417 late in the day
produced a large partial halo CME with nearly all material observed off the east
limb. There were faint traces of ejecta over parts of the northwest limb. While
the core of the CME will not reach Earth there's a chance of a weak flanking
impact on February 12 or 13.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH500) was Earth facing on February 8-9. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH501) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 15-16.
The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 12 due to weak coronal hole effects. Quiet conditions are likely on February 13-14, with a chance of a few unsettled intervals due to a possible flank CME impact.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
S1461 | 2012.02.07 | N07W51 | plage | ||||||||
11416 | 2012.02.08 2012.02.09 |
27 | 24 | 11 | S19W02 | 0400 | DHI | EKO |
area: 0700 location: S18W03 |
||
S1464 | 2012.02.08 | S21E24 | plage | ||||||||
11417 | 2012.02.09 2012.02.10 |
3 | 6 | 3 | N16E44 | 0020 | CRO | DRO | location: N17E47 | ||
S1466 | 2012.02.09 | N16E24 | plage | ||||||||
S1467 | 2012.02.09 | N29W13 | plage | ||||||||
S1468 | 2012.02.09 | N11W40 | plage | ||||||||
S1469 | 2012.02.10 | 1 | S23E28 | 0000 | AXX | ||||||
S1471 | 2012.02.11 | 1 | N15W37 | 0000 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 30 | 32 | 14 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 50 | 72 | 34 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted penumbral SN: | 43 | 45 | 27 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 30 | 32 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K |
Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | 33.4 (+2.4) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | 36.9 (+3.5) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | 41.8 (+4.9) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | 47.6 (+5.8) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | 53.2 (+5.6) | 8.96 / 8.06 |
2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | 57.2 (+4.0) | 9.14 / 8.16 |
2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | (60.4 projected, +3.2) | 8.16 / 7.26 |
2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | (63.1 projected, +2.7) | 12.80 / 12.27 |
2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | (65.8 projected, +2.7) | 7.52 / 8.28 |
2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | (69.1 projected, +3.3) | 4.58 / 5.55 |
2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | (73.9 projected, +4.8) | 3.32 |
2012.01 | 132.5 | 58.3 | (79.3 projected, +5.4) | 6.59 |
2012.02 | 107.7 (1) | 16.9 (2A) / 44.6 (2B) | (82.4 projected, +3.1) | (7.18) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.