Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 15, 2012 at 05:10 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update February 2, 2012)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update February 5, 2012)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated February 14, 2012]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2118 [December 2011 - January 2012] - 2119 [January-February 2012] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 27, 2011]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 336 and 414 km/s. No distinct solar wind signature was noted in association with the expected arrival of a transient from the CME observed on February 10. However, the geomagnetic disturbance level increased during the latter half of the day. The IMF early on Feb.15 is moderately southwards causing unsettled to active conditions.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 107.4 (decreasing 40.7 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 22221333 (planetary), 22212223 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11416 [S18W42] decayed quickly in the trailing spot section and was quiet.
Region 11417 [N16E03] reemerged with a couple of tiny spots.
Region 11418 [S24W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11419 [N28E47] was quiet and stable.
Region 11420 [N11E50] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not reported by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1477] emerged in the southeast quadrant on February 13. Location at midnight: S22E40
[S1479] emerged in the northeast quadrant on February 14. Location at midnight: N17E37

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

An trans equatorial coronal hole (CH501) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 15-16.

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 15 due to CME effects, an isolated minor storm interval is possible. Quiet conditions are likely on February 16-17. A high speed stream from CH501 could cause quiet to active conditions on February 18-19.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11416 2012.02.08
2012.02.09
15 12 9 S21W38 0250 EKO ESO location: S18W42
11417 2012.02.09
2012.02.10
  2   N18E04         location: N16E03
S1466 2012.02.09       N17W15           plage
11418 2012.02.10
2012.02.12
6 2 1 S24W13 0010 BXO BXO  
11419 2012.02.12 2 5 3 N31E44 0070 DSI CSO location: N28E47
11420 2012.02.12 1 2 1 N13E48 0090 HSX CSO

location: N11E50

S1474 2012.02.12       N04W51           plage
S1475 2012.02.12       S23W03           plage
S1476 2012.02.12       N10W20           plage
S1477 2012.02.13   5 1 S22E40 0000   BXO  
S1478 2012.02.13       N25E12         plage
S1479 2012.02.13   1 1 N17E37 0000   AXX    
Total spot count: 24 29 16  
Sunspot number: 64 99 76  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted penumbral SN: 44 44 31  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 38 45    k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1, 2011) for STAR SDO 2K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 28.8 (+2.3) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 31.0 (+2.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 33.4 (+2.4) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 36.9 (+3.5) 7.79 / 8.18
2011.04 112.6 54.4 41.8 (+4.9) 9.71 / 8.83
2011.05 95.8 41.6 47.6 (+5.8) 9.18 / 8.94
2011.06 95.8 37.0 53.2 (+5.6) 8.96 / 8.06
2011.07 94.2 43.9 57.2 (+4.0) 9.14 / 8.16
2011.08 101.7 50.6 (60.4 projected, +3.2) 8.16 / 7.26
2011.09 133.8 78.0 (63.1 projected, +2.7) 12.80 / 12.27
2011.10 137.3 88.0 (65.8 projected, +2.7) 7.52 / 8.28
2011.11 153.5 96.7 (69.1 projected, +3.3) 4.58 / 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 (73.9 projected, +4.8) 3.32
2012.01 132.5 58.3 (79.3 projected, +5.4) 6.59
2012.02 108.0 (1) 23.9 (2A) / 49.6 (2B) (82.4 projected, +3.1) (7.18)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.