Last major update issued on January 10, 2012 at 05:20 UTC.
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
2116 [October-November 2011] -
2117 [November-December 2011]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
June 27, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 9. Solar wind speed ranged between 4|3 and 460 km/s, weakly under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream associated with CH491.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 142.3 (increasing 9.2 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.4). Three hour interval K indices: 22211211 (planetary), 22222222 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11389 [S18W87] was quiet and rotated to the southwest limb.
Region 11391 [N13W12] developed slowly and has minor polarity intermixing.
A minor M class flare is possible.
Region 11393 [N17W56] has two large penumbrae, however, as the magnetic
layout has simplified, the region has displayed little activity of interest.
Region 11394 [N17E04] was quiet and could soon become spotless.
Region 11395 [N21E48] lost a little penumbral area and displayed no
significant changes otherwise.
Spotted regions not reported (or interpreted differently) by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1419] emerged in the southeast quadrant on January 8. Location at midnight:
S22E19
[S1420] emerged in the northern hemisphere near the central meridian on
January 9. Location at midnight: N30W02
[S1421] emerged near the southeast limb on January 9. Location at
midnight: S27E70
January 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH492) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 9-10. A recurrent coronal hole (CH493) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on January 12.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 10-11. Weak effects from CH492 could cause a few unsettled intervals on January 12-13. Quiet conditions are likely on January 14-15.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11389 | 2011.12.27 2011.12.28 |
1 | 1 | S19W88 | 0210 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| 11391 | 2012.01.02 | 22 | 27 | N12W12 | 0280 | DSC | ESI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0450 |
| S1406 | 2012.01.02 | N08W47 | ||||||||
| 11392 | 2012.01.02 2012.01.03 |
1 | N18W68 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
spotless | |||
| 11393 | 2012.01.04 2012.01.05 |
15 | 10 | N15W57 | 0520 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
area: 0900 |
| 11394 | 2012.01.05 2012.01.06 |
1 | N18W02 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N17E04 | ||
| S1411 | 2012.01.06 | S17E24 | plage | |||||||
| S1413 | 2012.01.06 | N33W19 | plage | |||||||
| 11395 | 2012.01.07 2012.01.08 |
1 | 6 | N22E48 | 0160 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0230 |
| S1415 | 2012.01.07 | N12E14 | plage | |||||||
| S1417 | 2012.01.07 | S24W42 | plage | |||||||
| S1418 | 2012.01.08 | N23W40 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S1419 | 2012.01.08 | 2 | S22E10 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S1420 | 2012.01.09 | 2 | N30W02 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S1421 | 2012.01.09 | 1 | S27E70 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 40 | 50 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 90 | 130 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted penumbral SN: | 65 | 75 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 54 | 59 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC. k = 0.45 (changed from 0.33 on Nov.1) for STAR SDO | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | 26.5 (+3.3) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | 28.8 (+2.3) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | 31.0 (+2.2) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | 33.4 (+2.4) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | 36.9 (+3.5) | 7.79 / 8.18 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | 41.8 (+4.9) | 9.71 / 8.83 |
| 2011.05 | 95.8 | 41.6 | 47.6 (+5.8) | 9.18 / 8.94 |
| 2011.06 | 95.8 | 37.0 | 53.2 (+5.6) | 8.96 / 8.06 |
| 2011.07 | 94.2 | 43.9 | (57.8 projected, +4.6) | 9.14 / 8.16 |
| 2011.08 | 101.7 | 50.6 | (62.0 projected, +4.2) | 8.16 / 7.26 |
| 2011.09 | 133.8 | 78.0 | (65.3 projected, +3.3) | 12.80 / 12.27 |
| 2011.10 | 137.3 | 88.0 | (68.8 projected, +3.5) | 7.52 |
| 2011.11 | 153.5 | 96.7 | (73.2 projected, +4.3) | 4.58 |
| 2011.12 | 141.3 | 73.0 | (78.6 projected, +5.5) | 3.32 |
| 2012.01 | 136.8 (1) | 26.4 (2A) / 90.9 (2B) | (84.4 projected, +5.8) | (4.52) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
