Last major update issued on April 12, 2013 at 04:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 7, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 4, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated March 24, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 352 and 515 km/s under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 137.1 (increasing 14.0 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.8). Three hour interval K indices: 10111112 (planetary), 01122312 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 10 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11711 [S17W81] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11714 [N13W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 11716 [S19W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 11717 [S10W16] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11718 [N22W31] has many spots and a large penumbral coverage. There is currently only minor polarity intermixing. An M class flare is possible.
Region 11719 [N10E02] developed slowly with a magnetic delta structure forming in a trailing penumbra. Further M class flares are possible. C5+ flare: M6.5/3B long duration event peaking at 07:16 UTC. This event was associated with a wide, fast full halo CME and a significant increase in proton levels at Earth.
Region 11721 [S18E19] developed slowly and was mostly quiet. C flares are possible.
Region 11722 [S20E30] was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
Region S2348 [N08W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S2350 [S24E72] rotated into view.
AR 11713 behind the northwest limb produced a long duration C6.0 event peaking at 10:46 and a long duration C4.0 event peaking at 23:02 UTC.
April 9-10: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
April 11: A fast full halo CME was observed after an M6.5 LDE in AR 11719. The CME could reach Earth during the first half of April 13.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No obvious coronal holes are currently in an Earth facing position.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on April 12. A CME could arrive early on April 13 and cause minor to severe geomagnetic storm conditions lasting into April 14.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||61||127||63|
|Sunspot number:||121||227||133||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||96||162||98||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||73||79||73||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle max)||96.7 (cycle max)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2012.10||123.3||53.3||(57.6 projected, -0.5)||9.97|
|2012.11||121.3||61.8||(56.9 projected, -0.7)||7.08|
|2012.12||108.6||40.8||(55.7 projected, -1.2)||3.44|
|2013.01||127.1||62.9||(54.3 projected, -1.4)||4.69|
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(53.3 projected, -1.0)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(52.2 projected, -1.1)||10.56|
|2013.04||134.2 (1)||46.1 (2A) / 125.8 (2B) / 59.5 (2C)||(51.0 projected, -1.2)||(3.38)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.