Last major update issued on April 27, 2013 at 05:10 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 7, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 4, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated March 24, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on April 26. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 489 and 591 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH566.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 121.9 (increasing 13.5 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.9). Three hour interval K indices: 34332333 (planetary), 34333233 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11726 [N13W84] rotated partly out of view and could still
produce a major flare while near the northwest limb. C5+ flares: C7.0 at
06:27, C5.7 at 22:25 UTC.
Region 11727 [N25W39] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11728 [N20E27] developed umbra on a trailing spot and was otherwise quiet and stable.
Region 11730 [S18E18] was quiet and stable.
Region 11731 [N08E50] was mostly quiet, however the region has polarity intermixing and could produce M class flares.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2368 [S18W03] regained trailing spots and was quiet.
S2376 [N13W53] was quiet and stable.
New region S2377 [S17E84] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S2378 [N45E53] emerged at a high latitude.
New region S2379 [S17W14] emerged with several spots.
New region S2380 [N36W07] emerged with a single penumbra spot.
New region S2381 [S14W35] emerged quietly.
April 24-26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH566) was in an Earth facing position on April 22-24. CH566 has decayed significantly during its transition of the visible disk. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH567) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on April 29.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on April 27 due to effects from CH566. Quiet conditions are likely on April 28-29.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||44||111||46|
|Sunspot number:||104||231||136||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||77||147||82||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||62||81||75||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle max)||96.7 (cycle max)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2012.10||123.3||53.3||(57.6 projected, -0.5)||9.97|
|2012.11||121.3||61.8||(56.9 projected, -0.7)||7.08|
|2012.12||108.6||40.8||(55.7 projected, -1.2)||3.44|
|2013.01||127.1||62.9||(54.3 projected, -1.4)||4.69|
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(53.3 projected, -1.0)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(52.2 projected, -1.1)||10.56|
|2013.04||122.7 (1)||96.2 (2A) / 111.0 (2B) / 66.8 (2C)||(51.0 projected, -1.2)||(5.50)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.