Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 26, 2013 at 08:20 UTC. Note: Updates will be irregular until January 28.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update January 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update January 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update January 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update January 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update January 2, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated January 8, 2013]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 25. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 280 and 390 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH550.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 100.5 (decreasing 5.3 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9). Three hour interval K indices: 00110223 (planetary), 01110223 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B1 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11660 [N13W70] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11661 [N14E20] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 11662 [N28E40] gained a tiny trailer spot.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2191 [N18E11] gained a tiny trailing spot.
S2192 [S28W69] lost two spots while the remaining spot enlargened.
New region S2193 [S10E60] emerged with everal spots.
New region S2194 [N19E28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S2195 [N18W12] emerged with a tiny spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 24-25: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
January 23: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant (to the west of AR 11662). This CME could reach Earth on January 26 or 27.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A coronal hole (CH550) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on January 21-22, however, CH550 closed on January 22.

Coronal hole map

The above coronal hole map is based on a method where coronal holes are detected automatically. While the method may need some fine tuning, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using this method, the extent and intensity of both CHs are consistent with other data sources.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 26 due to weak coronal hole effects. On January 26 or 27 the CME observed on January 23 could reach Earth and cause some unsettled and active intervals. Quiet conditions are likely on January 28-29.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11659 2013.01.16
2013.01.17
      N04W62           plage
11660 2013.01.17
2013.01.19
10 7 2 N13W68 0220 DAO DSO

location: N13W70

S2184 2013.01.18       N18W36         plage
S2185 2013.01.20       S13W39           plage
11661 2013.01.21
2013.01.22
3 9 6 N15E20 0030 CRO DRI  
S2187 2013.01.22       S29W06           plage
11662 2013.01.22
2013.01.23
1 3 1 N28E41 0050 HSX CSO  
S2189 2013.01.23       S18W18           plage
S2191 2013.01.24   2   N18E11 0004   BXO  
S2192 2013.01.24   1 1 S28W54 0006   BXO  
S2193 2013.01.25   4 2 S10E60 0010   BXO    
S2194 2013.01.25   2   N19E28 0003   AXX    
S2195 2013.01.25   1   N18W22 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 14 29 12  
Sunspot number: 44 109 62  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 27 42 27  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 26 38 34 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.10 137.3 88.0 59.9 (+0.4) 8.28
2011.11 153.5 (cycle max) 96.7 (cycle max) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 (57.4 projected, -1.5) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.1 (58.3 projected, +0.9) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.5 (58.9 projected, +0.6) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (58.3 projected, -0.6) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.4 (57.6 projected, -0.7) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 (56.9 projected, -0.7) 3.44
2013.01 134.0 (1) 88.3 (2A) / 109.5 (2B) / 68.2 (2C) (56.2 projected, -0.7) (4.21)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.