Last major update issued on July 26, 2013 at 05:05 UTC.
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
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June 30, 2013]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 25. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 283 and 450 km/s, increasingly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH576 after 13h UTC.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 106.9 (increasing 5.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.9). Three hour interval K indices: 11111344 (planetary), 12112344 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11793 [N21W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11799 [S18W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11800 [S07W31] gained penumbral area and is likely to continue
producing low level C class flares.
Region 11801 [N20E45] was quiet and stable.
Region 11802 [N13W74] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11803 [S10W15] gained a few penumbra spots and was quiet.
Region 11804 [S19W85] developed further as it rotated to the southwest
limb.
New region 11805 [S06W02] emerged on July 24 and developed slowly on July
25 when it was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2566 [S16W03] was quiet and stable.
S2567 [N22W03] lost the trailer spot and had penumbra leader spots
reemerge.
New region S2569 [N23W53] emerged with several penumbra spots.
New region S2570 [S14E43] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2571 [N42W32] emerged with a penumbra spot at a high
latitude.
July 23-25: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH576) was in an Earth facing position on July 22-23.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on July 26 due to effects from CH576 and quiet on July 27-28.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11793 | 2013.07.13 2013.07.14 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N20W66 | 0100 | ESO | ESO |
 |
 |
|
| 11804 | 2013.07.15 2013.07.24 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S23W85 | 0030 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
location: S19W95 |
| 11798 | 2013.07.17 2013.07.18 |
S12W56 | plage | ||||||||
| 11799 | 2013.07.17 2013.07.18 |
3 | S16W32 | 0006 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 11800 | 2013.07.17 2013.07.18 |
14 | 24 | 11 | S09W32 | 0120 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S07W31 area: 0280 |
| 11803 | 2013.07.18 2013.07.23 |
8 | 1 | S09W17 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2560 | 2013.07.19 | N18W41 | plage | ||||||||
| 11801 | 2013.07.22 2013.07.23 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N20E44 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0120 |
| 11802 | 2013.07.22 2013.07.23 |
1 | N14W75 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2565 | 2013.07.23 | S12E51 | plage | ||||||||
| S2566 | 2013.07.23 | 3 | S16W03 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S2567 | 2013.07.23 | 4 | N22W03 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11805 | 2013.07.24 2013.07.25 |
3 | 8 | 5 | S07W01 | 0020 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S06W03 area: 0040 |
| S2569 | 2013.07.25 | 8 | 2 | N23W53 | 0019 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S2570 | 2013.07.25 | 2 | S14E43 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2571 | 2013.07.25 | 1 | N42W32 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 21 | 68 | 23 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 71 | 198 | 93 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 46 | 91 | 46 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 43 | 69 | 51 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (58.7 projected, -0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (58.3 projected, -0.4) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | (57.9 projected, -0.4) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (57.5 projected, -0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (57.6 projected, +0.1) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (57.9 projected, +0.3) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 116.8 (1) | 70.5 (2A) / 87.4 (2B) / 54.7 (2C) | (58.0 projected, +0.1) | (10.02) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
