Last major update issued on June 22, 2013 at 05:45 UTC.
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[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on June 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 441 and 622 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH573.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 133.2 (increasing 11.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.4). Three hour interval K indices: 43223243 (planetary), 44433323 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B6 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 12 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11770 [S15W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 11772 [S22W37] developed significantly and could produce C and
minor M class flares.
Region 11773 [N03W21] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11774 [S16W23] was quiet and stable.
Region 11775 [S26W04] still has a magnetic delta structure in the western part
of the main
penumbral structure, however, opposite polarity umbrae are not very close. An M
class flare is possible.
Region 11776 [N11W35] appears to be maturing. There is minor polarity
intermixing and a chance of C flares.
Region 11777 [S15E57] displayed little change. The single negative spot
is nearly surrounded by positive polarity flux. C5+
flare: M2.9/1F long duration event peaking at 03:14 UTC. This event
was associated with a CME.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2482 [S18W03] was quiet and stable.
S2490 [S14E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
S2492 [N11E16] was quiet and stable.
New region S2496 [N00E14] emerged with a single spot at the equator.
New region S2497 [N14W02] emerged with penumbra spots.
June 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and
STEREO imagery.
June 21: The CME observed early in the associated with the M2.9 event in
AR 11777 was wide. LASCO observed this as a partial halo CME. There's a
possibility a weak component of the CME could cause a glancing impact on June 23
or 24. If it reaches Earth at all it may be embedded within the high speed
stream from CH573.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A large northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH573) was in a geoeffective position on June 17-22. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH574] will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on June 25.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on June 22-25 due to effects from CH573.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11770 | 2013.06.12 2013.06.13 |
2 | 1 | 1 | S14W36 | 0070 | HSX | HAX |
 |
 |
|
| 11769 | 2013.06.12 2013.06.13 |
S22W45 | merged with AR 11772 | ||||||||
| 11772 | 2013.06.13 2013.06.14 |
23 | 36 | 14 | S22W38 | 0140 | DAC | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0300 |
| 11771 | 2013.06.13 2013.06.14 |
S15W28 | plage | ||||||||
| 11773 | 2013.06.14 2013.06.15 |
6 | 14 | 6 | N03W21 | 0030 | HAX | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11774 | 2013.06.14 2013.06.15 |
5 | 18 | 6 | S17W23 | 0040 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
|
| 11775 | 2013.06.14 2013.06.15 |
9 | 28 | 7 | S26W06 | 0270 | DKC | DKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0430 |
| S2482 | 2013.06.15 | 4 | 2 | S17E12 | 0011 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S2485 | 2013.06.17 | S24W25 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11776 | 2013.06.18 | 17 | 30 | 11 | N11W36 | 0170 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0300 |
| S2487 | 2013.06.18 | S28W33 | plage | ||||||||
| S2490 | 2013.06.19 | 1 | S14E37 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| 11777 | 2013.06.19 2013.06.20 |
3 | 6 | 2 | S15E56 | 0130 | CAO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0240 |
| S2492 | 2013.06.20 | 11 | N11E16 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S2493 | 2013.06.20 | N20W14 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2494 | 2013.06.20 | S09W62 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2495 | 2013.06.20 | S14W49 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2496 | 2013.06.21 | 1 | 1 | N00E14 | 0005 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S2497 | 2013.06.21 | 2 | N14W02 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 65 | 152 | 50 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 135 | 272 | 140 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 105 | 193 | 91 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 81 | 95 | 77 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (59.5 projected, -0.2) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (59.1 projected, -0.4) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (59.3 projected, +0.2) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | (58.9 projected, -0.4) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (58.6 projected, -0.3) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (58.7 projected, +0.1) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 109.8 (1) | 52.8 (2A) / 75.5 (2B) / 50.7 (2C) | (59.0 projected, +0.3) | (10.94) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
