Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 20, 2013 at 05:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update March 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update March 2, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update March 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update March 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update March 1, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated February 3, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 376 and 590 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 110.4 (increasing 1.9 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 11101023 (planetary), 22101112 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11692 [N08W56] developed positive polarity spots to the southwest of the large negative polarity spot, a few of them inside the same penumbra. While the magnetic delta structure is currently small, there is an increasing chance of an M class flare.
Region 11694 [N14W46] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11695 [N09W33] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11696 [N04W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11699 [S15W83] was quiet and stable.
Region 11700 [S13E31] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2299 [N20E21] was quiet and stable.
S2306 [N08W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2307 [S25W17] emerged with a penumbra spot.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 17: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery late in the day. STEREO-A displays a CME starting at 15:54 UTC with the major part of the ejection occurring a few hours later (when it was observed in STEREO-B as well). SDO imagery displays a complex sequence of events involving large parts of the visible northern hemisphere. The most significant event was a filament eruption close to AR S2302 starting near 16:43 UTC.
March 18-19
: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH561) was in an Earth facing position on March 18.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 20 with a chance of minor storm intervals if the CME observed on March 17 arrives. Quiet to active conditions are possible on March 21-22 due to effects from CH561.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11692 2013.03.09 5 9 6 N09W57 0240 DAI DKC

area: 0360

11694 2013.03.09
2013.03.10
  5 1 N17W61 0020   CRO location: N14W46
11695 2013.03.10
2013.03.11
6 3 1 N10W37 0150 DAO CSO area: 0200

location: N09W33

11696 2013.03.11 10 2 1 N05W77 0180 EAI CAO location: N04W83

area: 0050

S2292 2013.03.15       S26W03           plage
11700 2013.03.15
2013.03.17
  4 1 S13E27 0009   BXO

location: S13E31

S2294 2013.03.15       N14W09         plage
S2296 2013.03.15       N06W59           plage
S2299 2013.03.15   2   N20E21 0005   AXX  
11699 2013.03.16
2013.03.17
7 4 3 S15W73 0060 DAO DRO area: 0030
S2301 2013.03.17       S13E12           plage
S2303 2013.03.18       N53W25         plage
S2304 2013.03.18       S43W44         plage
S2305 2013.03.18       N07W07         plage
S2306 2013.03.18   3 3 N08W38 0020   CRO split off from AR 11695
S2307 2013.03.19   1   S25W17 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 28 33 16  
Sunspot number: 68 123 86  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 48 62 45  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 41 43 47 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.11 153.5 (cycle max) 96.7 (cycle max) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2011.12 141.3 73.0 63.4 (+2.3) 3.78
2012.01 132.5 58.3 65.5 (+2.1) 7.15
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
possible cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.03 114.7 64.3 66.8 (-0.1) 16.08
2012.04 113.0 55.2 64.6 (-2.2) 10.10
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 57.7 (-1.2) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.0 58.1 (+0.4) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.4 (57.9 projected, -0.2) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 (57.0 projected, -0.9) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.4 (56.1 projected, -0.9) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 (54.9 projected, -1.2) 3.44
2013.01 127.1 62.9 (53.6 projected, -1.3) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 38.0 (52.5 projected, -1.1) 6.11
2013.03 117.8 (1) 58.8 (2A) / 95.9 (2B) / 53.5 (2C) (51.5 projected, -1.0) (9.95)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.