Last major update issued on May 10, 2013 at 04:30 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 9. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 446 and 532 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 128.4 (decreasing 9.5 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.1). Three hour interval K indices: 11111000 (planetary), 21132211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B7 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11734 [S18W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11736 [S08W72] became a compact region and could produce C and
maybe M class flares.
Region 11738 [N17W15] has polarity intermixing and could produce C flares.
Region 11739 [N11W11] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11740 [S22E01] was quiet and stable.
Region 11741 [S21E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11742 [N29E59] rotated into view on May 7 and was numbered 2
days later by SWPC. Slow development was observed on May 9.
New region 11743 [N23E66] rotated into view on May 8 and developed slowly
on May 9 when it was assigned its NOAA number.
New region 11744 [N03E70] rotated into view on May 8 and was numbered the
next day by SWPC. The region has polarity intermixing and could produce C
flares.
A very active region is just behind the northeast limb (near N12) and was the source of the day's only C5+ flare, a C9.0 event (wrongly assigned to AR 11744 by SWPC) at 23:16 UTC. An M3.9 flare was recorded at 00:57 UTC on May 10. Further M class flaring is possible.
May 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH569) was in an Earth facing position on May 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 10-11. Quiet to unsettled is possible on May 12-13 du to weak coronal hole effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11732 | 2013.04.26 2013.04.27 |
3 | S17W90 | 0080 | DSO |
 |
rotated out of view |
||||
| 11734 | 2013.04.28 2013.04.29 |
13 | 6 | 2 | S18W64 | 0400 | HKX | CKO |
 |
 |
location: S18W62 |
| 11736 | 2013.04.30 2013.05.01 |
12 | 11 | 8 | S08W78 | 0240 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
location: S08W72 |
| 11737 | 2013.04.30 2013.05.03 |
N16W49 | plage | ||||||||
| 11738 | 2013.05.03 | 8 | 17 | 7 | N15W21 | 0050 | CAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N17W15 |
| 11739 | 2013.05.03 | 8 | 15 | 4 | N12W09 | 0060 | DAI | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N11W11 area: 0040 |
| 11740 | 2013.05.03 | 7 | 2 | S21W06 | 0013 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S22E01 |
||
| S2397 | 2013.05.04 | N11W25 | plage | ||||||||
| 11741 | 2013.05.05 2013.05.06 |
1 | 6 | 1 | S20E19 | 0005 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
area: 0013 location: S21E23 |
| 11742 | 2013.05.07 2013.05.09 |
12 | 15 | 7 | N30E49 | 0050 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
|
| S2402 | 2013.05.07 | S29W27 | plage | ||||||||
| S2403 | 2013.05.07 | N07W27 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| 11743 | 2013.05.08 2013.05.09 |
2 | 8 | 3 | N24E55 | 0030 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 11744 | 2013.05.08 2013.05.09 |
5 | 7 | 4 | N05E61 | 0030 | DAO | ERO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma location: N03E70 |
| S2406 | 2013.05.08 | N16E20 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| Total spot count: | 64 | 92 | 38 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 154 | 182 | 128 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 107 | 138 | 74 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 64 | 70 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle max) | 96.7 (cycle max) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.03 | 114.7 | 64.3 | 66.8 (-0.1) | 16.08 |
| 2012.04 | 113.0 | 55.2 | 64.6 (-2.2) | 10.10 |
| 2012.05 | 121.5 | 69.0 | 61.7 (-2.9) | 7.06 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.7 (-1.2) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.1 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.0) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | (59.1 projected, +0.5) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | (58.4 projected, -0.7) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | (58.0 projected, -0.4) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | (58.2 projected, +0.5) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | (57.8 projected, -0.4) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (57.4 projected, -0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 138.9 (1) | 37.7 (2A) / 129.8 (2B) / 71.2 (2C) | (57.5 projected, +0.1) | (8.63) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
