Last major update issued on May 14, 2013 at 04:55 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update May 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 7, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update May 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update May 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update May 6, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated May 12, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 309 and 392 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 150.3 (increasing 37.0 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11110211 (planetary), 11112422 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 13 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).
Region 11741 [S22W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11742 [N29W04] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11743 [N21E02] decayed slightly and was quiet.
Region 11744 [N04E16] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11745 [N12E38] developed slowly and has polarity intermixing. C and M class flares are possible.
Region 11746 [S28E39] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11747 [S18E36] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 11748 [N11E81] rotated into view as a compact region. Further M and X class flaring is obviously likely. C5+ flares: C9.3 at 00:39, X1.7 at 02:17 (associated with a wide and fast CME which likely had no Earth directed components), M1.3 at 12:03, C5.3 at 14:40, X2.8/1N at 16:05 (a CME was observed, but it was smaller than the one observed early in the day) and C8.3 at 22:05 UTC. Additionally an X3.2 flare was recorded at 01:11 UTC on May 14.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2411 [S23E50] was quiet and stable.
S2413 [N19W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2414 [N20E12] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2415 [S26E14] emerged with penumbra spots in an old plage area.
New region S2416 [S23W12] emerged with several penumbra spots.
May 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH570) was in an Earth facing position on May 13.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 14-16 with a chance of unsettled intervals on May 16 due to possible effects from CH570.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
location at midnight: N17W72
SWPC spots are AR S2413
|Total spot count:||54||174||76|
|Sunspot number:||144||304||176||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||97||217||119||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||86||106||97||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle max)||96.7 (cycle max)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2012.11||121.3||61.8||(59.1 projected, +0.5)||7.08|
|2012.12||108.6||40.8||(58.4 projected, -0.7)||3.44|
|2013.01||127.1||62.9||(58.0 projected, -0.4)||4.69|
|2013.02||104.3||38.0||(58.2 projected, +0.5)||6.11|
|2013.03||111.3||57.9||(57.8 projected, -0.4)||10.56|
|2013.04||124.8||72.4||(57.4 projected, -0.4)||5.40|
|2013.05||139.1 (1)||57.4 (2A) / 136.8 (2B) / 73.4 (2C)||(57.5 projected, +0.1)||(7.04)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.