Last major update issued on October 3, 2013 at 04:10 UTC.
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[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
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[Presentation
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SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to severe storm on October 2. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 378 and 691 km/s. A strong solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 01:24 UTC with wind speed increasing abruptly by more than 200 km/s. This was the arrival of the Sept.29 CME and caused a very strong southerly excursion of the interplanetary magnetic field early in the day. The planetary A index for the 03-06 UT interval reached 154.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 108.1 (decreasing 2.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 113.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 51 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 50.8). Three hour interval K indices: 57533365 (planetary), 55543343 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B3 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 8 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 132) and 4 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 62) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11855 [S12W12] began to decay, the region
still has many spots.
New region 11856 [N07E71] rotated into view on October 1 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
New region 11857 [S07E68] rotated into view on October 1 and received its
NOAA number the next day.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2710 [N20W26] decayed slowly losing the leading penumbra spot.
New region S2728 [N10W54] emerged with several
spots.
New region S2729 [S12E36] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S2730 [N11E18] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2731 [S18E21] emerged with a penumbra spot.
September 30 - October 2: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH589) in the northern hemisphere could rotate into an Earth facing position on October 7.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 3 due to lingering CME effects. Quiet conditions are likely on October 4-6.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11851 | 2013.09.22 | S20W65 |
plage |
||||||||
| S2710 | 2013.09.24 | 3 | N20W26 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
images/AR_S2710_20131001_2345.png | ||||
| S2718 | 2013.09.26 | S20W16 | plage | ||||||||
| 11854 | 2013.09.27 2013.09.28 |
1 | N05E04 | 0020 | HSX |
 |
spotless | ||||
| S2720 | 2013.09.27 | N10W29 | plage | ||||||||
| 11855 | 2013.09.28 2013.09.30 |
16 | 32 | 16 | S14W11 | 0130 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S12W12 |
| 11857 | 2013.10.01 2013.10.02 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S06E66 | 0070 | HAX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: S07E68 |
| 11856 | 2013.10.01 2013.10.02 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N08E69 | 0050 | CAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0080 |
| S2728 | 2013.10.02 | 9 | 3 | N10W54 | 0040 | DRO |
 |
||||
| S2729 | 2013.10.02 | 2 | S12E36 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S2730 | 2013.10.02 | 1 | N11E18 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2731 | 2013.10.02 | 1 | S18E21 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 52 | 22 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 59 | 132 | 62 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 39 | 70 | 40 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 35 | 46 | 34 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) likely cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (56.2 projected, -1.3) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (55.8 projected, -0.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (56.0 projected, +0.2) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (56.1 projected, +0.1) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (55.9 projected, -0.2) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (55.4 projected, -0.5) | 5.29 |
| 2013.10 | 107.5 (1) | 3.5 (2A) / 54.0 (2B) / 37.1 (2C) | (53.9 projected, -1.5) | (37.1) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
