Last major update issued on October 31, 2013 at 04:20 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
daily)]
[Solar wind and
electron fluence charts (updated
daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2013)] [Cycle
24 progress (last update October 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last
update October 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
24 (last update October 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update
October 9, 2013)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated
October 10, 2013]
[Presentation
3rd
SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 30. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 308 and 381 km/s under the influence of CME effects.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 141.9 (increasing 28.1 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 117.7. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 12 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 12.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11333334 (planetary), 01343423 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux was at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 12 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 236) and 10 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 157) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11877 [S12W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11879 [S13W68] decayed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11882 [S11W06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11883 [N02E29] was quiet and stable.
Region 11884 [S14E28] has 2 minor magnetic delta structures and could
produce M flares. The southeasternmost spots are being considered for a split.
Region 11886 [N14W22] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11887 [N20E64] emerged on October 29 and was numbered the next
day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
S2784 [S16W16] was quiet and stable.
S2789 [N02W05] was quiet and stable.
New region S2792 [S11E74] rotated into view with apenumbra spot.
New region S2793 [N19W13] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S2794 [S12E55] emerged with a penumbra spot.
October 28: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery after the X1
flare early in the day. The CME could reach Earth on October 31. A full
halo CME was observed after an M4.4 event in AR 11882 and could reach Earth on
October 31.
October 29-30: An asymmetric full halo CME was observed after the X2 flare in AR
11875 at the west limb late on Oct.29 and early on Oct.30. The CME could reach
Earth on November 1-2.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH592) will rotate into an Earth facing positon on October 31-November 3. The coronal hole takes on a narrow and elongated shape in its western section.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor due to enhanced proton levels. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is very good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 31 - November 2 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on November 3-5 due to effects from CH592.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 11877 | 2013.10.18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | S13W81 | 0160 | DAO | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S12W83 |
| 11879 | 2013.10.21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | S13W69 | 0080 | CAO | HAX |
 |
 |
|
| 11881 | 2013.10.22 2013.10.24 |
S22W48 | plage | ||||||||
| 11882 | 2013.10.23 2013.10.24 |
19 | 25 | 15 | S09W06 | 0240 | DKO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S11W06 |
| S2780 | 2013.10.24 | S10W32 | plage | ||||||||
| S2781 | 2013.10.25 | N26W17 | plage | ||||||||
| 11883 | 2013.10.26 | 1 | 2 | 1 | N04E18 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N02E19 |
| 11884 | 2013.10.26 | 15 | 52 | 23 | S11E24 | 0460 | EKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0600 location: S14E28 |
| 11885 | 2013.10.26 | 5 | S18E23 | 0200 | CAO | part of AR 11884 | |||||
| S2784 | 2013.10.27 | 5 | 3 | S16W16 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2786 | 2013.10.27 | N07W34 | plage | ||||||||
| 11886 | 2013.10.28 2013.10.29 |
7 | 13 | 6 | N15W23 | 0050 | DAO | DRO |
 |
 |
|
| S2788 | 2013.10.29 | N30W58 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2789 | 2013.10.29 | 2 | 1 | N02W05 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11887 | 2013.10.29 2013.10.30 |
1 | 8 | 4 | N21E63 | 0020 | HSX | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0060 location: N20E64 |
| S2791 | 2013.10.29 | N13W05 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S2792 | 2013.10.30 | 1 | S11E74 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S2793 | 2013.10.30 | 1 | 1 | N19W13 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S2794 | 2013.10.30 | 1 | S12E55 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 52 | 116 | 57 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 132 | 236 | 157 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 97 | 149 | 90 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 79 | 83 | 86 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) likely cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.06 | 119.6 | 64.5 | 58.9 (-2.8) | 10.08 |
| 2012.07 | 133.9 | 66.5 | 57.8 (-1.1) | 13.90 |
| 2012.08 | 115.4 | 63.0 | 58.2 (+0.4) | 7.96 |
| 2012.09 | 122.9 | 61.4 | 58.1 (-0.1) | 8.07 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | (56.2 projected, -1.3) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | (55.8 projected, -0.4) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | (56.0 projected, +0.2) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (56.1 projected, +0.1) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (55.9 projected, -0.2) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (55.4 projected, -0.5) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 131.7 (1) | 123.0 (2A) / 127.1 (2B) / 76.9 (2C) | (53.9 projected, -1.5) | (7.70) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
