Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on September 6, 2013 at 03:35 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update September 1, 2013)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update September 1, 2013) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update September 1, 2013)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update September 1, 2013)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update September 5, 2013)]

[POES auroral activity level since October 2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated September 5, 2013]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on September 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 356 and 449 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 110.1 (increasing 6.5 over the last solar rotation). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 2.6). Three hour interval K indices: 00010011 (planetary), 10222222 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11835 [S09W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11836 [N11W50] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 11837 [S17W61] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11838 [S04E69] rotated into view on September 4 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:
New region S2658 [S12E74] rotated into view.
New region S2659 [N15W15] emerged with 2 spots.
New region S2660 [N13E20] emerged with penumbra spots near CH584.
New region S2661 [S20E48] emerged with a penumbra spot in an old plage area.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

September 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A recurrent coronal hole (CH584) in the northern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on September 7.  CH584 has decreased in size over the last rotation.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on September 6-9. On September 10-11 there's a chance of quiet to active conditions due to effects from CH584.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5k image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC STAR SDO SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
11834 2013.08.23
2013.08.24
3     N13W93 0010   BXO  

rotated out of view

11835 2013.08.24 2 2   S08W82 0030 CSO BXO

location: S09W80

11836 2013.08.26
2013.08.27
10 13 7 N13W56 0120 CSO DAO images/AR_11836_20130905_2345.png

location: N11W50

area: 0180

S2645 2013.08.29       N33W43           plage
S2646 2013.08.30       S13W14           plage
S2647 2013.08.30       S13W48           plage
S2648 2013.08.30       N42W18           plage
S2649 2013.08.31       S04W35           plage
11837 2013.08.31
2013.09.02
9 10 4 S16W61 0130 DSI DAO area: 0200
S2651 2013.09.01       N20W10           plage
S2653 2013.09.01       N10W59           plage
S2655 2013.09.03       N03E26           plage
S2656 2013.09.03       S07W16           plage
11838 2013.09.04
2013.09.05
1 1 1 S03E68 0030 HSX HAX area: 0080
S2658 2013.09.05   2 1 S12E74 0008   AXX    
S2659 2013.09.05   2 2 N15W15 0025   CRO    
S2660 2013.09.05   3   N13E20 0006   AXX    
S2661 2013.09.05   1   S20E48 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 25 34 15  
Sunspot number: 75 114 65  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 45 52 33  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 45 40 36 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2011.11 153.5 (cycle peak) 96.7 (cycle peak) 61.1 (+1.2) 5.55
2012.02 106.5 32.9 66.9 (+1.4)
likely cycle 24 max
8.81
2012.05 121.5 69.0 61.7 (-2.9) 7.06
2012.06 119.6 64.5 58.9 (-2.8) 10.08
2012.07 133.9 66.5 57.8 (-1.1) 13.90
2012.08 115.4 63.0 58.2 (+0.4) 7.96
2012.09 122.9 61.4 58.1 (-0.1) 8.07
2012.10 123.3 53.3 58.6 (+0.5) 9.97
2012.11 121.3 61.8 59.7 (+1.1) 7.08
2012.12 108.6 40.8 59.6 (-0.1) 3.44
2013.01 127.1 62.9 58.7 (-0.9) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 57.9 (58.2 projected, -0.2) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 72.4 (57.9 projected, -0.3) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 78.7 (58.0 projected, +0.1) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 52.5 (58.3 projected, +0.3) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 57.0 (58.3 projected, 0.0) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 66.0 (58.2 projected, -0.1) 8.27
2013.09 107.0 (1) 12.7 (2A) / 76.2 (2B) / 55.3 (2C) (57.8 projected, -0.4) (6.1)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.