Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on April 22, 2014 at 05:20 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 2, 2014)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 17, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on April 22. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 461 and 655 km/s under the influence of CME effects.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 158.8 (increasing 6.0 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 154.2. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.4). Three hour interval K indices: 44332411 (planetary), 45343422 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 302) and 12 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 198) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12034 [N04W81] decayed slowly producing a few low level C flares.
Region 12035 [S16W57] decayed slowly, a few low level C flares were observed.
Region 12036 [S18W81] decayed slowly and quietly.
 
Region 12037 [S09W80] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12038 [S11W19] has polarity intermixing and produced several C flares, the largest a C5 event.
Region 12042 [N18E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12044 [S21E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 12045 [S23E50] developed slowly.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3323 [S15W37] decayed slowly and quietly.
S3339 [N06E07] was quiet and stable.
S3343 [S16E01] was quiet and stable.
S3344 [S18E21] decayed slowly and was quiet.
S3346 [N18W22] was quiet and stable.
S3347 [S11W60] developed further and has a magnetic delta structure. An M class flare is possible.
New region S3348 [S19E42] emerged with penumbra spots.

Flares (SDO/EVE):

Magnitude Time (UTC) Location AR
C1.5 01:08 N03W77 12034
C1.1 04:07 S24E71 12045
C1.3 04:54 S24E68 12045
C1.1 06:33 S17W75 12036
C1.1 07:01 S17W74 12036
C1.9 09:40 S14W12 12038
C1.1 11:48 S14W49 12035
C1.4 18:21 S13W54 12035
C5.4 20:02 S10W15 12038
C2.2 21:10 S12W56 12035
C3.1 22:31 S10W18 12038
C2.6 23:36 S17W55 12035

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 19-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Coronal hole map

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on April 22 and quiet on April 23-24.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12034 2014.04.10 11 5 3 N05W80 0260 EKI EAC  
12035 2014.04.10
2014.04.11
27 19 10 S15W58 0290 EKI DSO area: 0170
12037 2014.04.12
2014.04.13
1 2   S09W82 0030 HAX BXO

 

12036 2014.04.12
2014.04.13
11 5 3 S17W81 0150 ESI DAO

 

S3317 2014.04.13       S09W28           plage
12040 2014.04.13
2014.04.15
      N15W56         plage
12038 2014.04.14
2014.04.15
18 35 23 S10W20 0090 CAI DRI

area: 0140

S3323 2014.04.14   1   S15W37 0002   AXX  
12039 2014.04.15       N24W70           plage
12042 2014.04.16 4 7 5 N18E02 0160 DAO DSO area: 0250
12043 2014.04.16
2014.04.17
      S11W73           plage
12044 2014.04.18
2014.04.19
12 10 3 S21E24 0030 CAO DRO  
12045 2014.04.18
2014.04.19
4 13 8 S23E47 0050 CAO CAI location: S23E50

area: 0110

S3338 2014.04.18       S09W25           plage
S3339 2014.04.19   4 2 N06E07 0010   AXX  
S3341 2014.04.19       S09E22           plage
S3342 2014.04.19       S03W38           plage
S3343 2014.04.20   12 6 S16E01 0030   AXX images/AR_S3343_20140421_2345.png  
S3344 2014.04.20   5 2 S18E21 0023   HRX  
S3345 2014.04.20       N10E35         plage
S3346 2014.04.20   3   N18W22 0009   BXO  
S3347 2014.04.20   26 11 S11W60 0180   DAC beta-gamma-delta
S3348 2014.04.21   5 2 S19E42 0015   BXO    
Total spot count: 88 152 78  
Sunspot number: 168 302 198  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 138 191 117  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 101 106 109 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.01 127.1 123.1 62.9 58.7 (-0.9) 4.69
2013.02 104.3 101.8 38.0 58.4 (-0.3) 6.11
2013.03 111.3 110.2 57.9 57.5 (-0.9) 10.56
2013.04 124.8 125.9 72.4 57.9 (+0.4) 5.40
2013.05 131.4 134.3 78.7 59.9 (+2.0) 9.73
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 (75.3 projected, +2.1) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 (76.3 projected, +1.0) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 (77.3 projected, +1.0) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 82.0 (78.3 projected, +1.0) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.8 (cycle peak) (78.1 projected, -0.2) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 92.2 (78.5 projected, +0.4) 4.88
2014.04 151.3 (1)   104.2 (2A) / 148.9 (2B) / 109.9 (2C) (77.7 projected, -0.8) (8.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.