Last major update issued on January 9, 2014 at 05:30 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 295 and 363 km/s.
Solar flux estimated at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 195 (increasing 30.2 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 147.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33111012 (planetary), 44011221 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 11 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 300) and 10 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 201) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11942 [N14W36] lost the leader spot and
gained a trailing penumbra spot.
Region 11943 [S14W27] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11944 [S09W14] decayed further losing in excess of 10% of its
penumbral area. While there are several small magnetic delta structures, the
flare rate is low. A major flare is
possible.
Region 11946 [N09W17] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 11948 [N06E40] was quiet and stable.
New region 11949 [S15E69] rotated into view on January 7 and was numbered
the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S2995 [S17E18] was quiet and stable.
New region S3001 [N07E80] rotated into view.
New region S3002 [N12E20] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3003 [N19E09] emerged with penumbra
spots.
New region S3004 [S10W71] emerged with penumbra
spots.
January 6, 8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
and
STEREO imagery.
January 7: A full halo CME was observed after the X1 event in AR 11943.
Given the exit speed, this CME could reach Earth during the first half of
January 9.
Coronal hole history (since October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH599) will rotate into an Earth facing position on January 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is very poor due to high proton levels. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to major storm, possibly with severe storm intervals, on January 9-10 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on January 11. A high speed stream from CH599 could cause quiet to active conditions on January 12-13.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlay |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S2971 | 2013.12.30 | S22W58 | plage | ||||||||
| 11943 | 2013.12.30 2013.12.31 |
11 | 2 | S11W35 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S14W27 |
||
| 11942 | 2013.12.30 2013.12.31 |
1 | 1 | N10W48 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N14W36 | ||
| 11944 | 2013.12.31 2014.01.01 |
118 | 124 | 68 | S09W17 | 1560 | FKC | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 1980 location: S09W14 |
| 11945 | 2014.01.01 2014.01.02 |
N11W67 | plage | ||||||||
| S2983 | 2014.01.03 | N21W00 | plage | ||||||||
| 11946 | 2014.01.04 | 18 | 34 | 20 | N09W21 | 0290 | DKI | DKI |
 |
 |
location: N09W17 area: 0400 |
| S2988 | 2014.01.04 | N20W31 | plage | ||||||||
| 11948 | 2014.01.05 2014.01.06 |
1 | 3 | 2 | N06E40 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0160 |
| S2992 | 2014.01.05 | N17W04 | plage | ||||||||
| S2993 | 2014.01.05 | N04W31 | plage | ||||||||
| S2995 | 2014.01.05 | 6 | 2 | S17E18 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S2996 | 2014.01.06 | S01W13 | plage | ||||||||
| 11949 | 2014.01.07 2014.01.08 |
1 | 2 | 1 | S15E70 | 0080 | HSX | HHX |
 |
 |
area: 0290 |
| S2999 | 2014.01.07 | S32W04 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3000 | 2014.01.07 | S19W05 |
 |
plage | |||||||
| S3001 | 2014.01.08 | 1 | 1 | N07E80 | 0005 | HRX |
 |
||||
| S3002 | 2014.01.08 | 4 | 3 | N12E20 | 0015 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S3003 | 2014.01.08 | 2 | N19E09 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S3004 | 2014.01.08 | 2 | 1 | S10W71 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 138 | 190 | 101 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 178 | 300 | 201 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 168 | 228 | 139 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 107 | 105 | 111 | k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K | |||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011.11 | 153.5 (cycle peak) | 96.7 (cycle peak) | 61.1 (+1.2) | 5.55 |
| 2012.02 | 106.5 | 32.9 | 66.9 (+1.4) possible cycle 24 max |
8.81 |
| 2012.10 | 123.3 | 53.3 | 58.6 (+0.5) | 9.97 |
| 2012.11 | 121.3 | 61.8 | 59.7 (+1.1) | 7.08 |
| 2012.12 | 108.6 | 40.8 | 59.6 (-0.1) | 3.44 |
| 2013.01 | 127.1 | 62.9 | 58.7 (-0.9) | 4.69 |
| 2013.02 | 104.3 | 38.0 | 58.4 (-0.3) | 6.11 |
| 2013.03 | 111.3 | 57.9 | 57.5 (-0.9) | 10.56 |
| 2013.04 | 124.8 | 72.4 | 57.9 (+0.4) | 5.40 |
| 2013.05 | 131.4 | 78.7 | 59.9 (+2.0) | 9.73 |
| 2013.06 | 110.1 | 52.5 | 62.6 (+2.7) | 12.60 |
| 2013.07 | 115.5 | 57.0 | (65.4 projected, +2.8) | 9.47 |
| 2013.08 | 114.6 | 66.0 | (67.8 projected, +2.4) | 8.27 |
| 2013.09 | 102.6 | 36.9 | (70.1 projected, +2.3) | 5.23 |
| 2013.10 | 132.1 | 85.6 | (70.0 projected, -0.1) | 7.71 |
| 2013.11 | 148.3 | 77.6 | (68.1 projected, -1.9) | 5.68 |
| 2013.12 | 147.7 | 90.3 | (67.4 projected, -0.7) | 4.68 |
| 2014.01 | 191.5 (1) | 45.9 (2A) / 177.9 (2B) / 100.3 (2C) | (67.6 projected, +0.2) | (7.5) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
