Last major update issued on January 22, 2014 at 05:55 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update January 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update January 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update January 1, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level since October
2009 - updated January 26, 2013]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated January 11, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 293 and 443 km/s under the influence of effects from CH600.
Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 146.0 (increasing 23.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 148.0. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.9). Three hour interval K indices: 31222221 (planetary), 21222332 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time) spots were observed in 16 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 301) and 15 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 229) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 11952 [S32W52] was quiet and stable.
Region 11955 [S13W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 11957 [N12W06] developed with new flux emerging. The region has polarity intermixing. C and minor M class flares are possible.
Region 11958 [S08E23] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11959 [S23E33] was mostly quiet and stable, however, there is a chance of C and minor M class flaring.
Region 11960 [S15E37] gained trailing penumbra spots and was quiet.
Region 11961 [S12W48] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11963 [S07E58] rotated into view on January 19 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.
New region 11964 [S13E52] emerged on January 20 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3029 [S25E17] reemerged with penumbra spots.
S3038 [N00E32] decayed early in the day, then developed again during the latter half of the day.
S3039 [S19E07] was quiet and stable.
S3052 [S15E73] was quiet and stable.
S3053 [S08W07] was quiet and stable.
New region S3054 [S20E48] emerged with penumbra spots.
New region S3055 [N14E70] emerged near the northeast limb.
January 19 and 21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
January 20: An asymmetric halo CME was observed late in the day after a long duration C3 event involving AR 11963 and a filament eruption.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH600) rotated across the central meridian on January 18.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair to good.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 22 due to weak effects from CH600 and quiet on January 23. On January 24 there is a chance of weak effects (unsettled intervals) from the CME observed late on January 20 and early on January 21.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||51||141||79|
|Sunspot number:||141||301||229||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||96||200||130||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||85||105||126||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for STAR SDO 2K, k = 0.55 for STAR SDO 1K|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2011.11||153.5 (cycle peak)||96.7 (cycle peak)||61.1 (+1.2)||5.55|
possible cycle 24 max
|2013.07||115.5||57.0||(65.4 projected, +2.8)||9.47|
|2013.08||114.6||66.0||(67.8 projected, +2.4)||8.27|
|2013.09||102.6||36.9||(70.1 projected, +2.3)||5.23|
|2013.10||132.1||85.6||(70.0 projected, -0.1)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||77.6||(68.1 projected, -1.9)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||90.3||(67.4 projected, -0.7)||4.68|
|2014.01||162.3 (1)||91.3 (2A) / 134.8 (2B) / 102.3 (2C)||(67.6 projected, +0.2)||(5.7)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.